CLELA
Cleveland Browns @ Los Angeles Rams
Any-day matchup, Rams at home · power ratings as of
Our pick
LALos Angeles Rams
78% to win
A probability, not a promise: a 78% pick loses about 2 times in 10.
Advantages Why the Rams can win
- Season-long ratings: over the season, betting lines have rated Rams about 5.7 points stronger.
- Simulation: Rams win 7,820 of 10,000 simulated games.
- Pass protection, sacks allowed per dropback: Rams rank 5th (3.8%), Browns 32nd (10.6%).
- Travel: Browns cross 3 time zones for this one.
- Home field: Rams play at home, worth roughly 1 to 2 points in recent seasons.
Disadvantages Why the Rams may not
- Turnover margin per game: Browns rank 16th (+0.0), Rams 29th (-0.7).
- Pass rush, sacks per dropback: Browns rank 6th (7.8%), Rams 27th (4.2%).
- Upset odds: Browns win 2,180 of 10,000 simulations (22%). A 78% pick still loses about 2 times in 10.
- Range of outcomes: in the worst 10% of simulations, Rams lose by 7 or more.
- Weak spot: Rams rank 32nd in field goal percentage (60.0%).
The line and our numbers
| Market | AZMango | |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | No line yet | LA -9.2 |
| Total points | n/a | 44.9 |
| Win chance | CLE n/a · LA n/a | CLE 22% · LA 78% |
| Fair moneyline | CLE +360 · LA -360 |
No betting line for this pairing. Odds change all the time, so check a sportsbook before acting on any number here.
10,000 simulated games
- Typical score: LA 27, CLE 17.
- 80% of simulations land between CLE by 7 and LA by 27.
Side by side
| CLE | LA | |
|---|---|---|
| 5-2 | Record | 3-4 |
| 19.0 28 | Points per game | 24.3 11 |
| 20.9 12 | Points allowed | 22.7 16 |
| -0.03 20 | Offense EPA/play | +0.06 10 |
| -0.03 13 | Defense EPA/play allowed | -0.06 5 |
| +0.0 16 | Turnover margin/game | -0.7 29 |
| 7.8% 6 | Sacks per dropback | 4.2% 27 |
Small numbers are league ranks (1 = best). EPA (expected points added) measures how much each play changes a team's expected score.
Last 5 meetings
| Date | Game | Score | Winner | Closing line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023-12-03 | 2023 Wk 13 | CLE 19 @ LA 36 | LA | LA -3.5 |
| 2019-09-22 | 2019 Wk 3 | LA 20 @ CLE 13 | LA | LA -4 |
| 2015-10-25 | 2015 Wk 7 | CLE 6 @ LA 24 | LA | LA -6.5 |
| 2011-11-13 | 2011 Wk 10 | LA 13 @ CLE 12 | LA | CLE -2.5 |
| 2007-10-28 | 2007 Wk 8 | CLE 27 @ LA 20 | CLE | CLE -3 |
Basis: power ratings only (no betting line yet). 10,000 drive-by-drive simulations, calibrated so our percentages match how often teams actually won in a 2020-2026 backtest. Model version 1. How it works
No betting line exists for a game that isn't scheduled, so this uses our own power ratings (they pick about 65% of winners in the backtest). Flip home and away