CLEMIA
Cleveland Browns @ Miami Dolphins
Any-day matchup, Dolphins at home · power ratings as of
Our pick
CLECleveland Browns
55% to win
A probability, not a promise: a 55% pick loses about 4 times in 10.
Advantages Why the Browns can win
- Browns passing game (21st in EPA) faces the Dolphins defense that ranks 32nd against it.
- Simulation: Browns win 5,530 of 10,000 simulated games.
- Point differential per game: Browns rank 21st (-1.9), Dolphins 31st (-9.8).
- Season-long ratings: over the season, betting lines have rated Browns about 1.3 points stronger.
- Recent scoring margins: worth about 1.2 points to Browns in our ratings.
Disadvantages Why the Browns may not
- Upset odds: Dolphins win 4,470 of 10,000 simulations (45%). A 55% pick still loses about 4 times in 10.
- Home field: Dolphins play at home, worth roughly 1 to 2 points in recent seasons.
- Dolphins running game (7th in EPA) faces the Browns defense that ranks 14th against it.
- Range of outcomes: in the worst 10% of simulations, Browns lose by 15 or more.
- Weak spot: Browns rank 32nd in pass protection, sacks allowed per dropback (10.6%).
The line and our numbers
| Market | AZMango | |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | No line yet | CLE -1.2 |
| Total points | n/a | 41.3 |
| Win chance | CLE n/a · MIA n/a | CLE 55% · MIA 45% |
| Fair moneyline | CLE -124 · MIA +124 |
No betting line for this pairing. Odds change all the time, so check a sportsbook before acting on any number here.
10,000 simulated games
- Typical score: MIA 20, CLE 21.
- 80% of simulations land between CLE by 17 and MIA by 15.
Side by side
| CLE | MIA | |
|---|---|---|
| 5-2 | Record | 1-5 |
| 19.0 28 | Points per game | 16.3 30 |
| 20.9 12 | Points allowed | 26.2 25 |
| -0.03 20 | Offense EPA/play | -0.04 21 |
| -0.03 13 | Defense EPA/play allowed | +0.12 30 |
| +0.0 16 | Turnover margin/game | -0.5 26 |
| 7.8% 6 | Sacks per dropback | 3.3% 30 |
Small numbers are league ranks (1 = best). EPA (expected points added) measures how much each play changes a team's expected score.
Last 5 meetings
| Date | Game | Score | Winner | Closing line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-10-19 | 2025 Wk 7 | MIA 6 @ CLE 31 | CLE | CLE -2.5 |
| 2024-12-29 | 2024 Wk 17 | MIA 20 @ CLE 3 | MIA | MIA -3 |
| 2022-11-13 | 2022 Wk 10 | CLE 17 @ MIA 39 | MIA | MIA -3 |
| 2019-11-24 | 2019 Wk 12 | MIA 24 @ CLE 41 | CLE | CLE -11 |
| 2016-09-25 | 2016 Wk 3 | CLE 24 @ MIA 30 | MIA | MIA -10 |
Basis: power ratings only (no betting line yet). 10,000 drive-by-drive simulations, calibrated so our percentages match how often teams actually won in a 2020-2026 backtest. Model version 1. How it works
No betting line exists for a game that isn't scheduled, so this uses our own power ratings (they pick about 65% of winners in the backtest). Flip home and away