DALARI
Dallas Cowboys @ Arizona Cardinals
Any-day matchup, Cardinals at home · power ratings as of
Our pick
DALDallas Cowboys
68% to win
A probability, not a promise: a 68% pick loses about 3 times in 10.
Advantages Why the Cowboys can win
- Season-long ratings: over the season, betting lines have rated Cowboys about 4.2 points stronger.
- Cowboys passing game (8th in EPA) faces the Cardinals defense that ranks 30th against it.
- Recent scoring margins: worth about 2.4 points to Cowboys in our ratings.
- Recent form: average margin over the last three games, Cowboys -0.3, Cardinals -12.0.
- Point differential per game: Cowboys rank 14th (+1.3), Cardinals 30th (-9.4).
Disadvantages Why the Cowboys may not
- Home field: Cardinals play at home, worth roughly 1 to 2 points in recent seasons.
- Upset odds: Cardinals win 3,230 of 10,000 simulations (32%). A 68% pick still loses about 3 times in 10.
- Cardinals passing game (23rd in EPA) faces the Cowboys defense that ranks 31st against it.
- Cardinals running game (17th in EPA) faces the Cowboys defense that ranks 25th against it.
- Turnover margin per game: Cardinals rank 13th (+0.3), Cowboys 21st (-0.4).
The line and our numbers
| Market | AZMango | |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | No line yet | DAL -5.2 |
| Total points | n/a | 52.6 |
| Win chance | DAL n/a · ARI n/a | DAL 68% · ARI 32% |
| Fair moneyline | DAL -210 · ARI +210 |
No betting line for this pairing. Odds change all the time, so check a sportsbook before acting on any number here.
10,000 simulated games
- Typical score: ARI 24, DAL 29.
- 80% of simulations land between DAL by 22 and ARI by 11.
Side by side
| DAL | ARI | |
|---|---|---|
| 3-4 | Record | 2-5 |
| 27.0 5 | Points per game | 20.3 26 |
| 25.7 23 | Points allowed | 29.7 32 |
| +0.13 5 | Offense EPA/play | -0.04 22 |
| +0.14 32 | Defense EPA/play allowed | +0.10 28 |
| -0.4 21 | Turnover margin/game | +0.3 13 |
| 4.4% 25 | Sacks per dropback | 6.5% 17 |
Small numbers are league ranks (1 = best). EPA (expected points added) measures how much each play changes a team's expected score.
Last 5 meetings
| Date | Game | Score | Winner | Closing line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-11-03 | 2025 Wk 9 | ARI 27 @ DAL 17 | ARI | DAL -3.5 |
| 2023-09-24 | 2023 Wk 3 | DAL 16 @ ARI 28 | ARI | DAL -11.5 |
| 2022-01-02 | 2021 Wk 17 | ARI 25 @ DAL 22 | ARI | DAL -6.5 |
| 2020-10-19 | 2020 Wk 6 | ARI 38 @ DAL 10 | ARI | DAL -1 |
| 2017-09-25 | 2017 Wk 3 | DAL 28 @ ARI 17 | DAL | DAL -3 |
Basis: power ratings only (no betting line yet). 10,000 drive-by-drive simulations, calibrated so our percentages match how often teams actually won in a 2020-2026 backtest. Model version 1. How it works
No betting line exists for a game that isn't scheduled, so this uses our own power ratings (they pick about 65% of winners in the backtest). Flip home and away