DALCAR
Dallas Cowboys @ Carolina Panthers
Any-day matchup, Panthers at home · power ratings as of
Our pick
DALDallas Cowboys
56% to win
A probability, not a promise: a 56% pick loses about 4 times in 10.
Advantages Why the Cowboys can win
- Panthers are missing regulars: CB Akayleb Evans (out), G Damien Lewis (out), LB Jaelan Phillips (out).
- Cowboys running game (6th in EPA) faces the Panthers defense that ranks 31st against it.
- Season-long ratings: over the season, betting lines have rated Cowboys about 1.9 points stronger.
- Recent form: average margin over the last three games, Cowboys -0.3, Panthers -9.0.
- Simulation: Cowboys win 5,600 of 10,000 simulated games.
Disadvantages Why the Cowboys may not
- Panthers passing game (16th in EPA) faces the Cowboys defense that ranks 31st against it.
- Upset odds: Panthers win 4,400 of 10,000 simulations (44%). A 56% pick still loses about 4 times in 10.
- Home field: Panthers play at home, worth roughly 1 to 2 points in recent seasons.
- Explosive plays (20+ yards) per game: Panthers rank 6th (3.9), Cowboys 21st (3.1).
- Panthers running game (18th in EPA) faces the Cowboys defense that ranks 25th against it.
The line and our numbers
| Market | AZMango | |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | No line yet | DAL -1.3 |
| Total points | n/a | 51.7 |
| Win chance | DAL n/a · CAR n/a | DAL 56% · CAR 44% |
| Fair moneyline | DAL -127 · CAR +127 |
No betting line for this pairing. Odds change all the time, so check a sportsbook before acting on any number here.
10,000 simulated games
- Typical score: CAR 24, DAL 26.
- 80% of simulations land between DAL by 18 and CAR by 15.
Side by side
| DAL | CAR | |
|---|---|---|
| 3-4 | Record | 3-4 |
| 27.0 5 | Points per game | 25.4 9 |
| 25.7 23 | Points allowed | 27.6 27 |
| +0.13 5 | Offense EPA/play | +0.02 13 |
| +0.14 32 | Defense EPA/play allowed | +0.05 23 |
| -0.4 21 | Turnover margin/game | +0.0 16 |
| 4.4% 25 | Sacks per dropback | 4.0% 28 |
Small numbers are league ranks (1 = best). EPA (expected points added) measures how much each play changes a team's expected score.
Last 5 meetings
| Date | Game | Score | Winner | Closing line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-10-12 | 2025 Wk 6 | DAL 27 @ CAR 30 | CAR | DAL -3 |
| 2024-12-15 | 2024 Wk 15 | DAL 30 @ CAR 14 | DAL | CAR -2.5 |
| 2023-11-19 | 2023 Wk 11 | DAL 33 @ CAR 10 | DAL | DAL -11 |
| 2021-10-03 | 2021 Wk 4 | CAR 28 @ DAL 36 | DAL | DAL -4.5 |
| 2018-09-09 | 2018 Wk 1 | DAL 8 @ CAR 16 | CAR | CAR -2.5 |
Basis: power ratings only (no betting line yet). 10,000 drive-by-drive simulations, calibrated so our percentages match how often teams actually won in a 2020-2026 backtest. Model version 1. How it works
No betting line exists for a game that isn't scheduled, so this uses our own power ratings (they pick about 65% of winners in the backtest). Flip home and away