DALCHI
Dallas Cowboys @ Chicago Bears
Any-day matchup, Bears at home · power ratings as of
Our pick
CHIChicago Bears
56% to win
A probability, not a promise: a 56% pick loses about 4 times in 10.
Advantages Why the Bears can win
- Bears passing game (10th in EPA) faces the Cowboys defense that ranks 31st against it.
- Simulation: Bears win 5,610 of 10,000 simulated games.
- Home field: Bears play at home, worth roughly 1 to 2 points in recent seasons.
- Pass rush, sacks per dropback: Bears rank 3rd (8.9%), Cowboys 25th (4.4%).
- Explosive plays (20+ yards) per game: Bears rank 2nd (4.6), Cowboys 21st (3.1).
Disadvantages Why the Bears may not
- Upset odds: Cowboys win 4,390 of 10,000 simulations (44%). A 56% pick still loses about 4 times in 10.
- Cowboys running game (6th in EPA) faces the Bears defense that ranks 19th against it.
- Cowboys passing game (8th in EPA) faces the Bears defense that ranks 16th against it.
- Pass protection, sacks allowed per dropback: Cowboys rank 1st (2.5%), Bears 19th (6.9%).
- Season-long ratings: over the season, betting lines have rated Cowboys about 0.8 points stronger.
The line and our numbers
| Market | AZMango | |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | No line yet | CHI -2.2 |
| Total points | n/a | 52.5 |
| Win chance | DAL n/a · CHI n/a | DAL 44% · CHI 56% |
| Fair moneyline | DAL +128 · CHI -128 |
No betting line for this pairing. Odds change all the time, so check a sportsbook before acting on any number here.
10,000 simulated games
- Typical score: CHI 27, DAL 24.
- 80% of simulations land between DAL by 14 and CHI by 19.
Side by side
| DAL | CHI | |
|---|---|---|
| 3-4 | Record | 5-2 |
| 27.0 5 | Points per game | 25.7 7 |
| 25.7 23 | Points allowed | 20.4 9 |
| +0.13 5 | Offense EPA/play | +0.04 11 |
| +0.14 32 | Defense EPA/play allowed | +0.01 17 |
| -0.4 21 | Turnover margin/game | -0.1 18 |
| 4.4% 25 | Sacks per dropback | 8.9% 3 |
Small numbers are league ranks (1 = best). EPA (expected points added) measures how much each play changes a team's expected score.
Last 5 meetings
| Date | Game | Score | Winner | Closing line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-09-21 | 2025 Wk 3 | DAL 14 @ CHI 31 | CHI | DAL -1.5 |
| 2022-10-30 | 2022 Wk 8 | CHI 29 @ DAL 49 | DAL | DAL -10.5 |
| 2019-12-05 | 2019 Wk 14 | DAL 24 @ CHI 31 | CHI | DAL -3 |
| 2016-09-25 | 2016 Wk 3 | CHI 17 @ DAL 31 | DAL | DAL -6.5 |
| 2014-12-04 | 2014 Wk 14 | DAL 41 @ CHI 28 | DAL | DAL -3.5 |
Basis: power ratings only (no betting line yet). 10,000 drive-by-drive simulations, calibrated so our percentages match how often teams actually won in a 2020-2026 backtest. Model version 1. How it works
No betting line exists for a game that isn't scheduled, so this uses our own power ratings (they pick about 65% of winners in the backtest). Flip home and away