DALJAX
Dallas Cowboys @ Jacksonville Jaguars
Any-day matchup, Jaguars at home · power ratings as of
Our pick
JAXJacksonville Jaguars
64% to win
A probability, not a promise: a 64% pick loses about 4 times in 10.
Advantages Why the Jaguars can win
- Jaguars passing game (4th in EPA) faces the Cowboys defense that ranks 31st against it.
- Simulation: Jaguars win 6,360 of 10,000 simulated games.
- Point differential per game: Jaguars rank 2nd (+8.3), Cowboys 14th (+1.3).
- Recent scoring margins: worth about 1.5 points to Jaguars in our ratings.
- Turnover margin per game: Jaguars rank 3rd (+0.8), Cowboys 21st (-0.4).
Disadvantages Why the Jaguars may not
- Upset odds: Cowboys win 3,640 of 10,000 simulations (36%). A 64% pick still loses about 4 times in 10.
- Cowboys passing game (8th in EPA) faces the Jaguars defense that ranks 13th against it.
- Range of outcomes: in the worst 10% of simulations, Jaguars lose by 12 or more.
- Pass protection, sacks allowed per dropback: Cowboys rank 1st (2.5%), Jaguars 12th (5.2%).
- Weak spot: Jaguars rank 25th in penalty yards per game (68.7).
The line and our numbers
| Market | AZMango | |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | No line yet | JAX -4.3 |
| Total points | n/a | 51.2 |
| Win chance | DAL n/a · JAX n/a | DAL 36% · JAX 64% |
| Fair moneyline | DAL +174 · JAX -174 |
No betting line for this pairing. Odds change all the time, so check a sportsbook before acting on any number here.
10,000 simulated games
- Typical score: JAX 27, DAL 23.
- 80% of simulations land between DAL by 12 and JAX by 21.
Side by side
| DAL | JAX | |
|---|---|---|
| 3-4 | Record | 4-2 |
| 27.0 5 | Points per game | 25.7 8 |
| 25.7 23 | Points allowed | 17.3 3 |
| +0.13 5 | Offense EPA/play | +0.15 3 |
| +0.14 32 | Defense EPA/play allowed | -0.03 11 |
| -0.4 21 | Turnover margin/game | +0.8 3 |
| 4.4% 25 | Sacks per dropback | 4.5% 24 |
Small numbers are league ranks (1 = best). EPA (expected points added) measures how much each play changes a team's expected score.
Last 5 meetings
| Date | Game | Score | Winner | Closing line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2022-12-18 | 2022 Wk 15 | DAL 34 @ JAX 40 | JAX | DAL -4 |
| 2018-10-14 | 2018 Wk 6 | JAX 7 @ DAL 40 | DAL | JAX -3 |
| 2014-11-09 | 2014 Wk 10 | DAL 31 @ JAX 17 | DAL | DAL -7.5 |
| 2010-10-31 | 2010 Wk 8 | JAX 35 @ DAL 17 | JAX | DAL -6.5 |
| 2006-09-10 | 2006 Wk 1 | DAL 17 @ JAX 24 | JAX | DAL -2.5 |
Basis: power ratings only (no betting line yet). 10,000 drive-by-drive simulations, calibrated so our percentages match how often teams actually won in a 2020-2026 backtest. Model version 1. How it works
No betting line exists for a game that isn't scheduled, so this uses our own power ratings (they pick about 65% of winners in the backtest). Flip home and away