DALLA
Dallas Cowboys @ Los Angeles Rams
Any-day matchup, Rams at home · power ratings as of
Our pick
LALos Angeles Rams
63% to win
A probability, not a promise: a 63% pick loses about 4 times in 10.
Advantages Why the Rams can win
- Rams passing game (12th in EPA) faces the Cowboys defense that ranks 31st against it.
- Simulation: Rams win 6,310 of 10,000 simulated games.
- Season-long ratings: over the season, betting lines have rated Rams about 1.5 points stronger.
- Rams running game (11th in EPA) faces the Cowboys defense that ranks 25th against it.
- Home field: Rams play at home, worth roughly 1 to 2 points in recent seasons.
Disadvantages Why the Rams may not
- Cowboys running game (6th in EPA) faces the Rams defense that ranks 22nd against it.
- Upset odds: Cowboys win 3,690 of 10,000 simulations (37%). A 63% pick still loses about 4 times in 10.
- Turnover margin per game: Cowboys rank 21st (-0.4), Rams 29th (-0.7).
- Range of outcomes: in the worst 10% of simulations, Rams lose by 11 or more.
- Weak spot: Rams rank 32nd in field goal percentage (60.0%).
The line and our numbers
| Market | AZMango | |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | No line yet | LA -4.4 |
| Total points | n/a | 52.7 |
| Win chance | DAL n/a · LA n/a | DAL 37% · LA 63% |
| Fair moneyline | DAL +171 · LA -171 |
No betting line for this pairing. Odds change all the time, so check a sportsbook before acting on any number here.
10,000 simulated games
- Typical score: LA 28, DAL 24.
- 80% of simulations land between DAL by 11 and LA by 21.
Side by side
| DAL | LA | |
|---|---|---|
| 3-4 | Record | 3-4 |
| 27.0 5 | Points per game | 24.3 11 |
| 25.7 23 | Points allowed | 22.7 16 |
| +0.13 5 | Offense EPA/play | +0.06 10 |
| +0.14 32 | Defense EPA/play allowed | -0.06 5 |
| -0.4 21 | Turnover margin/game | -0.7 29 |
| 4.4% 25 | Sacks per dropback | 4.2% 27 |
Small numbers are league ranks (1 = best). EPA (expected points added) measures how much each play changes a team's expected score.
Last 5 meetings
| Date | Game | Score | Winner | Closing line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023-10-29 | 2023 Wk 8 | LA 20 @ DAL 43 | DAL | DAL -6.5 |
| 2022-10-09 | 2022 Wk 5 | DAL 22 @ LA 10 | DAL | LA -5.5 |
| 2020-09-13 | 2020 Wk 1 | DAL 17 @ LA 20 | LA | LA -1 |
| 2019-12-15 | 2019 Wk 15 | LA 21 @ DAL 44 | DAL | LA -1 |
| 2019-01-12 | 2018 Divisional | DAL 22 @ LA 30 | LA | LA -7.5 |
Basis: power ratings only (no betting line yet). 10,000 drive-by-drive simulations, calibrated so our percentages match how often teams actually won in a 2020-2026 backtest. Model version 1. How it works
No betting line exists for a game that isn't scheduled, so this uses our own power ratings (they pick about 65% of winners in the backtest). Flip home and away