DALLAC
Dallas Cowboys @ Los Angeles Chargers
Any-day matchup, Chargers at home · power ratings as of
Our pick
DALDallas Cowboys
60% to win
A probability, not a promise: a 60% pick loses about 4 times in 10.
Advantages Why the Cowboys can win
- Point differential per game: Cowboys rank 14th (+1.3), Chargers 32nd (-10.2).
- Recent scoring margins: worth about 2.1 points to Cowboys in our ratings.
- Season-long ratings: over the season, betting lines have rated Cowboys about 2.0 points stronger.
- Recent form: average margin over the last three games, Cowboys -0.3, Chargers -9.7.
- Simulation: Cowboys win 5,970 of 10,000 simulated games.
Disadvantages Why the Cowboys may not
- Upset odds: Chargers win 4,030 of 10,000 simulations (40%). A 60% pick still loses about 4 times in 10.
- Home field: Chargers play at home, worth roughly 1 to 2 points in recent seasons.
- Travel: Cowboys cross 2 time zones for this one.
- Range of outcomes: in the worst 10% of simulations, Cowboys lose by 14 or more.
- Weak spot: Cowboys rank 32nd in defense, EPA per play allowed (+0.14).
The line and our numbers
| Market | AZMango | |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | No line yet | DAL -2.5 |
| Total points | n/a | 49.4 |
| Win chance | DAL n/a · LAC n/a | DAL 60% · LAC 40% |
| Fair moneyline | DAL -148 · LAC +148 |
No betting line for this pairing. Odds change all the time, so check a sportsbook before acting on any number here.
10,000 simulated games
- Typical score: LAC 23, DAL 26.
- 80% of simulations land between DAL by 20 and LAC by 14.
Side by side
| DAL | LAC | |
|---|---|---|
| 3-4 | Record | 0-6 |
| 27.0 5 | Points per game | 15.0 32 |
| 25.7 23 | Points allowed | 25.2 22 |
| +0.13 5 | Offense EPA/play | -0.20 32 |
| +0.14 32 | Defense EPA/play allowed | -0.05 7 |
| -0.4 21 | Turnover margin/game | -0.8 30 |
| 4.4% 25 | Sacks per dropback | 6.0% 19 |
Small numbers are league ranks (1 = best). EPA (expected points added) measures how much each play changes a team's expected score.
Last 5 meetings
| Date | Game | Score | Winner | Closing line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-12-21 | 2025 Wk 16 | LAC 34 @ DAL 17 | LAC | DAL -1.5 |
| 2023-10-16 | 2023 Wk 6 | DAL 20 @ LAC 17 | DAL | DAL -1.5 |
| 2021-09-19 | 2021 Wk 2 | DAL 20 @ LAC 17 | DAL | LAC -3 |
| 2017-11-23 | 2017 Wk 12 | LAC 28 @ DAL 6 | LAC | LAC -1 |
| 2013-09-29 | 2013 Wk 4 | DAL 21 @ LAC 30 | LAC | DAL -1 |
Basis: power ratings only (no betting line yet). 10,000 drive-by-drive simulations, calibrated so our percentages match how often teams actually won in a 2020-2026 backtest. Model version 1. How it works
No betting line exists for a game that isn't scheduled, so this uses our own power ratings (they pick about 65% of winners in the backtest). Flip home and away