DALMIA
Dallas Cowboys @ Miami Dolphins
Any-day matchup, Dolphins at home · power ratings as of
Our pick
DALDallas Cowboys
71% to win
A probability, not a promise: a 71% pick loses about 3 times in 10.
Advantages Why the Cowboys can win
- Season-long ratings: over the season, betting lines have rated Cowboys about 5.5 points stronger.
- Cowboys passing game (8th in EPA) faces the Dolphins defense that ranks 32nd against it.
- Simulation: Cowboys win 7,120 of 10,000 simulated games.
- Point differential per game: Cowboys rank 14th (+1.3), Dolphins 31st (-9.8).
- Recent scoring margins: worth about 1.9 points to Cowboys in our ratings.
Disadvantages Why the Cowboys may not
- Dolphins running game (7th in EPA) faces the Cowboys defense that ranks 25th against it.
- Home field: Dolphins play at home, worth roughly 1 to 2 points in recent seasons.
- Upset odds: Dolphins win 2,880 of 10,000 simulations (29%). A 71% pick still loses about 3 times in 10.
- Range of outcomes: in the worst 10% of simulations, Cowboys lose by 10 or more.
- Penalty yards per game: Dolphins rank 4th (47.7), Cowboys 24th (67.0).
The line and our numbers
| Market | AZMango | |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | No line yet | DAL -6.1 |
| Total points | n/a | 49.1 |
| Win chance | DAL n/a · MIA n/a | DAL 71% · MIA 29% |
| Fair moneyline | DAL -247 · MIA +247 |
No betting line for this pairing. Odds change all the time, so check a sportsbook before acting on any number here.
10,000 simulated games
- Typical score: MIA 21, DAL 27.
- 80% of simulations land between DAL by 24 and MIA by 10.
Side by side
| DAL | MIA | |
|---|---|---|
| 3-4 | Record | 1-5 |
| 27.0 5 | Points per game | 16.3 30 |
| 25.7 23 | Points allowed | 26.2 25 |
| +0.13 5 | Offense EPA/play | -0.04 21 |
| +0.14 32 | Defense EPA/play allowed | +0.12 30 |
| -0.4 21 | Turnover margin/game | -0.5 26 |
| 4.4% 25 | Sacks per dropback | 3.3% 30 |
Small numbers are league ranks (1 = best). EPA (expected points added) measures how much each play changes a team's expected score.
Last 5 meetings
| Date | Game | Score | Winner | Closing line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023-12-24 | 2023 Wk 16 | DAL 20 @ MIA 22 | MIA | MIA -1.5 |
| 2019-09-22 | 2019 Wk 3 | MIA 6 @ DAL 31 | DAL | DAL -22 |
| 2015-11-22 | 2015 Wk 11 | DAL 24 @ MIA 14 | DAL | DAL -2.5 |
| 2011-11-24 | 2011 Wk 12 | MIA 19 @ DAL 20 | DAL | DAL -7 |
| 2007-09-16 | 2007 Wk 2 | DAL 37 @ MIA 20 | DAL | DAL -3.5 |
Basis: power ratings only (no betting line yet). 10,000 drive-by-drive simulations, calibrated so our percentages match how often teams actually won in a 2020-2026 backtest. Model version 1. How it works
No betting line exists for a game that isn't scheduled, so this uses our own power ratings (they pick about 65% of winners in the backtest). Flip home and away