DALWAS
Dallas Cowboys @ Washington Commanders
Any-day matchup, Commanders at home · power ratings as of
Our pick
DALDallas Cowboys
65% to win
A probability, not a promise: a 65% pick loses about 4 times in 10.
Advantages Why the Cowboys can win
- Season-long ratings: over the season, betting lines have rated Cowboys about 3.8 points stronger.
- Cowboys running game (6th in EPA) faces the Commanders defense that ranks 32nd against it.
- Simulation: Cowboys win 6,470 of 10,000 simulated games.
- Cowboys passing game (8th in EPA) faces the Commanders defense that ranks 21st against it.
- Point differential per game: Cowboys rank 14th (+1.3), Commanders 27th (-6.7).
Disadvantages Why the Cowboys may not
- Turnover margin per game: Commanders rank 2nd (+1.0), Cowboys 21st (-0.4).
- Commanders passing game (19th in EPA) faces the Cowboys defense that ranks 31st against it.
- Upset odds: Commanders win 3,530 of 10,000 simulations (35%). A 65% pick still loses about 4 times in 10.
- Home field: Commanders play at home, worth roughly 1 to 2 points in recent seasons.
- Commanders running game (12th in EPA) faces the Cowboys defense that ranks 25th against it.
The line and our numbers
| Market | AZMango | |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | No line yet | DAL -4.1 |
| Total points | n/a | 51.8 |
| Win chance | DAL n/a · WAS n/a | DAL 65% · WAS 35% |
| Fair moneyline | DAL -183 · WAS +183 |
No betting line for this pairing. Odds change all the time, so check a sportsbook before acting on any number here.
10,000 simulated games
- Typical score: WAS 24, DAL 27.
- 80% of simulations land between DAL by 21 and WAS by 12.
Side by side
| DAL | WAS | |
|---|---|---|
| 3-4 | Record | 1-4-1 |
| 27.0 5 | Points per game | 22.0 20 |
| 25.7 23 | Points allowed | 28.7 31 |
| +0.13 5 | Offense EPA/play | -0.01 17 |
| +0.14 32 | Defense EPA/play allowed | +0.08 25 |
| -0.4 21 | Turnover margin/game | +1.0 2 |
| 4.4% 25 | Sacks per dropback | 4.8% 23 |
Small numbers are league ranks (1 = best). EPA (expected points added) measures how much each play changes a team's expected score.
Last 5 meetings
| Date | Game | Score | Winner | Closing line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-20 | 2026 Wk 2 | WAS 20 @ DAL 37 | DAL | DAL -3.5 |
| 2025-12-25 | 2025 Wk 17 | DAL 30 @ WAS 23 | DAL | DAL -8.5 |
| 2025-10-19 | 2025 Wk 7 | WAS 22 @ DAL 44 | DAL | DAL -1.5 |
| 2025-01-05 | 2024 Wk 18 | WAS 23 @ DAL 19 | WAS | WAS -7 |
| 2024-11-24 | 2024 Wk 12 | DAL 34 @ WAS 26 | DAL | WAS -10.5 |
Basis: power ratings only (no betting line yet). 10,000 drive-by-drive simulations, calibrated so our percentages match how often teams actually won in a 2020-2026 backtest. Model version 1. How it works
No betting line exists for a game that isn't scheduled, so this uses our own power ratings (they pick about 65% of winners in the backtest). Flip home and away