DENCHI
Denver Broncos @ Chicago Bears
Any-day matchup, Bears at home · power ratings as of
Our pick
CHIChicago Bears
53% to win
A probability, not a promise: a 53% pick loses about 5 times in 10.
Advantages Why the Bears can win
- Explosive plays (20+ yards) per game: Bears rank 2nd (4.6), Broncos 29th (2.3).
- Home field: Bears play at home, worth roughly 1 to 2 points in recent seasons.
- Simulation: Bears win 5,330 of 10,000 simulated games.
- Point differential per game: Bears rank 7th (+5.3), Broncos 16th (+0.4).
- Bears running game (19th in EPA) faces the Broncos defense that ranks 29th against it.
Disadvantages Why the Bears may not
- Recent form: average margin over the last three games, Broncos +7.7, Bears -3.3.
- Upset odds: Broncos win 4,670 of 10,000 simulations (47%). A 53% pick still loses about 5 times in 10.
- Turnover margin per game: Broncos rank 5th (+0.6), Bears 18th (-0.1).
- Season-long ratings: over the season, betting lines have rated Broncos about 0.9 points stronger.
- Range of outcomes: in the worst 10% of simulations, Bears lose by 15 or more.
The line and our numbers
| Market | AZMango | |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | No line yet | CHI -1.2 |
| Total points | n/a | 46.5 |
| Win chance | DEN n/a · CHI n/a | DEN 47% · CHI 53% |
| Fair moneyline | DEN +114 · CHI -114 |
No betting line for this pairing. Odds change all the time, so check a sportsbook before acting on any number here.
10,000 simulated games
- Typical score: CHI 24, DEN 23.
- 80% of simulations land between DEN by 15 and CHI by 18.
Side by side
| DEN | CHI | |
|---|---|---|
| 5-2 | Record | 5-2 |
| 20.6 25 | Points per game | 25.7 7 |
| 20.1 7 | Points allowed | 20.4 9 |
| -0.05 25 | Offense EPA/play | +0.04 11 |
| -0.04 8 | Defense EPA/play allowed | +0.01 17 |
| +0.6 5 | Turnover margin/game | -0.1 18 |
| 7.4% 9 | Sacks per dropback | 8.9% 3 |
Small numbers are league ranks (1 = best). EPA (expected points added) measures how much each play changes a team's expected score.
Last 5 meetings
| Date | Game | Score | Winner | Closing line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023-10-01 | 2023 Wk 4 | DEN 31 @ CHI 28 | DEN | DEN -3 |
| 2019-09-15 | 2019 Wk 2 | CHI 16 @ DEN 14 | CHI | CHI -3 |
| 2015-11-22 | 2015 Wk 11 | DEN 17 @ CHI 15 | DEN | DEN -2.5 |
| 2011-12-11 | 2011 Wk 14 | CHI 10 @ DEN 13 | DEN | DEN -3.5 |
| 2007-11-25 | 2007 Wk 12 | DEN 34 @ CHI 37 | CHI | CHI -1 |
Basis: power ratings only (no betting line yet). 10,000 drive-by-drive simulations, calibrated so our percentages match how often teams actually won in a 2020-2026 backtest. Model version 1. How it works
No betting line exists for a game that isn't scheduled, so this uses our own power ratings (they pick about 65% of winners in the backtest). Flip home and away