DENLV
Denver Broncos @ Las Vegas Raiders
Any-day matchup, Raiders at home · power ratings as of
Our pick
DENDenver Broncos
64% to win
A probability, not a promise: a 64% pick loses about 4 times in 10.
Advantages Why the Broncos can win
- Season-long ratings: over the season, betting lines have rated Broncos about 3.9 points stronger.
- Recent form: average margin over the last three games, Broncos +7.7, Raiders -15.0.
- Simulation: Broncos win 6,430 of 10,000 simulated games.
- Recent scoring margins: worth about 1.4 points to Broncos in our ratings.
- Point differential per game: Broncos rank 16th (+0.4), Raiders 23rd (-2.0).
Disadvantages Why the Broncos may not
- Upset odds: Raiders win 3,570 of 10,000 simulations (36%). A 64% pick still loses about 4 times in 10.
- Home field: Raiders play at home, worth roughly 1 to 2 points in recent seasons.
- Explosive plays (20+ yards) per game: Raiders rank 13th (3.7), Broncos 29th (2.3).
- Range of outcomes: in the worst 10% of simulations, Broncos lose by 13 or more.
- Weak spot: Broncos rank 29th in run defense, EPA per carry allowed (+0.01).
The line and our numbers
| Market | AZMango | |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | No line yet | DEN -4 |
| Total points | n/a | 46.3 |
| Win chance | DEN n/a · LV n/a | DEN 64% · LV 36% |
| Fair moneyline | DEN -180 · LV +180 |
No betting line for this pairing. Odds change all the time, so check a sportsbook before acting on any number here.
10,000 simulated games
- Typical score: LV 21, DEN 24.
- 80% of simulations land between DEN by 21 and LV by 13.
Side by side
| DEN | LV | |
|---|---|---|
| 5-2 | Record | 3-4 |
| 20.6 25 | Points per game | 26.1 6 |
| 20.1 7 | Points allowed | 28.1 29 |
| -0.05 25 | Offense EPA/play | -0.01 18 |
| -0.04 8 | Defense EPA/play allowed | +0.06 24 |
| +0.6 5 | Turnover margin/game | +0.6 5 |
| 7.4% 9 | Sacks per dropback | 6.7% 15 |
Small numbers are league ranks (1 = best). EPA (expected points added) measures how much each play changes a team's expected score.
Last 5 meetings
| Date | Game | Score | Winner | Closing line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-12-07 | 2025 Wk 14 | DEN 24 @ LV 17 | DEN | DEN -8.5 |
| 2025-11-06 | 2025 Wk 10 | LV 7 @ DEN 10 | DEN | DEN -9.5 |
| 2024-11-24 | 2024 Wk 12 | DEN 29 @ LV 19 | DEN | DEN -6.5 |
| 2024-10-06 | 2024 Wk 5 | LV 18 @ DEN 34 | DEN | DEN -3 |
| 2024-01-07 | 2023 Wk 18 | DEN 14 @ LV 27 | LV | LV -3.5 |
Basis: power ratings only (no betting line yet). 10,000 drive-by-drive simulations, calibrated so our percentages match how often teams actually won in a 2020-2026 backtest. Model version 1. How it works
No betting line exists for a game that isn't scheduled, so this uses our own power ratings (they pick about 65% of winners in the backtest). Flip home and away