DENNE
Denver Broncos @ New England Patriots
Any-day matchup, Patriots at home · power ratings as of
Our pick
NENew England Patriots
53% to win
A probability, not a promise: a 53% pick loses about 5 times in 10.
Advantages Why the Patriots can win
- Explosive plays (20+ yards) per game: Patriots rank 6th (3.9), Broncos 29th (2.3).
- Home field: Patriots play at home, worth roughly 1 to 2 points in recent seasons.
- Simulation: Patriots win 5,310 of 10,000 simulated games.
- Patriots running game (16th in EPA) faces the Broncos defense that ranks 29th against it.
- Travel: Broncos cross 2 time zones for this one.
Disadvantages Why the Patriots may not
- Turnover margin per game: Broncos rank 5th (+0.6), Patriots 31st (-1.0).
- Upset odds: Broncos win 4,690 of 10,000 simulations (47%). A 53% pick still loses about 5 times in 10.
- Season-long ratings: over the season, betting lines have rated Broncos about 0.9 points stronger.
- Range of outcomes: in the worst 10% of simulations, Patriots lose by 15 or more.
- Weak spot: Patriots rank 31st in turnover margin per game (-1.0).
The line and our numbers
| Market | AZMango | |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | No line yet | NE -1.2 |
| Total points | n/a | 45.1 |
| Win chance | DEN n/a · NE n/a | DEN 47% · NE 53% |
| Fair moneyline | DEN +113 · NE -113 |
No betting line for this pairing. Odds change all the time, so check a sportsbook before acting on any number here.
10,000 simulated games
- Typical score: NE 23, DEN 21.
- 80% of simulations land between DEN by 15 and NE by 18.
Side by side
| DEN | NE | |
|---|---|---|
| 5-2 | Record | 4-3 |
| 20.6 25 | Points per game | 22.9 19 |
| 20.1 7 | Points allowed | 20.4 9 |
| -0.05 25 | Offense EPA/play | +0.07 9 |
| -0.04 8 | Defense EPA/play allowed | +0.03 20 |
| +0.6 5 | Turnover margin/game | -1.0 31 |
| 7.4% 9 | Sacks per dropback | 7.0% 13 |
Small numbers are league ranks (1 = best). EPA (expected points added) measures how much each play changes a team's expected score.
Last 5 meetings
| Date | Game | Score | Winner | Closing line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-01-25 | 2025 Conf. title | NE 10 @ DEN 7 | NE | NE -3.5 |
| 2023-12-24 | 2023 Wk 16 | NE 26 @ DEN 23 | NE | DEN -7 |
| 2020-10-18 | 2020 Wk 6 | DEN 18 @ NE 12 | DEN | NE -7 |
| 2017-11-12 | 2017 Wk 10 | NE 41 @ DEN 16 | NE | NE -7 |
| 2016-12-18 | 2016 Wk 15 | NE 16 @ DEN 3 | NE | NE -3 |
Basis: power ratings only (no betting line yet). 10,000 drive-by-drive simulations, calibrated so our percentages match how often teams actually won in a 2020-2026 backtest. Model version 1. How it works
No betting line exists for a game that isn't scheduled, so this uses our own power ratings (they pick about 65% of winners in the backtest). Flip home and away