DETMIN
Detroit Lions @ Minnesota Vikings
Any-day matchup, Vikings at home · power ratings as of
Our pick
MINMinnesota Vikings
55% to win
A probability, not a promise: a 55% pick loses about 4 times in 10.
Advantages Why the Vikings can win
- Simulation: Vikings win 5,530 of 10,000 simulated games.
- Home field: Vikings play at home, worth roughly 1 to 2 points in recent seasons.
- Point differential per game: Vikings rank 1st (+8.5), Lions 9th (+3.2).
- Recent scoring margins: worth about 0.9 points to Vikings in our ratings.
- Vikings passing game (22nd in EPA) faces the Lions defense that ranks 28th against it.
Disadvantages Why the Vikings may not
- Upset odds: Lions win 4,470 of 10,000 simulations (45%). A 55% pick still loses about 4 times in 10.
- Season-long ratings: over the season, betting lines have rated Lions about 1.1 points stronger.
- Pass protection, sacks allowed per dropback: Lions rank 11th (5.1%), Vikings 30th (9.9%).
- Explosive plays (20+ yards) per game: Lions rank 10th (3.8), Vikings 23rd (3.0).
- Range of outcomes: in the worst 10% of simulations, Vikings lose by 14 or more.
The line and our numbers
| Market | AZMango | |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | No line yet | MIN -1.8 |
| Total points | n/a | 48.7 |
| Win chance | DET n/a · MIN n/a | DET 45% · MIN 55% |
| Fair moneyline | DET +124 · MIN -124 |
No betting line for this pairing. Odds change all the time, so check a sportsbook before acting on any number here.
10,000 simulated games
- Typical score: MIN 24, DET 23.
- 80% of simulations land between DET by 14 and MIN by 18.
Side by side
| DET | MIN | |
|---|---|---|
| 4-2 | Record | 6-0 |
| 30.7 2 | Points per game | 20.8 24 |
| 27.5 26 | Points allowed | 12.3 1 |
| +0.14 4 | Offense EPA/play | -0.09 29 |
| +0.12 29 | Defense EPA/play allowed | -0.19 1 |
| +0.5 8 | Turnover margin/game | +1.2 1 |
| 7.5% 7 | Sacks per dropback | 10.6% 1 |
Small numbers are league ranks (1 = best). EPA (expected points added) measures how much each play changes a team's expected score.
Last 5 meetings
| Date | Game | Score | Winner | Closing line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-12-25 | 2025 Wk 17 | DET 10 @ MIN 23 | MIN | DET -7 |
| 2025-11-02 | 2025 Wk 9 | MIN 27 @ DET 24 | MIN | DET -9.5 |
| 2025-01-05 | 2024 Wk 18 | MIN 9 @ DET 31 | DET | DET -3 |
| 2024-10-20 | 2024 Wk 7 | DET 31 @ MIN 29 | DET | MIN -1 |
| 2024-01-07 | 2023 Wk 18 | MIN 20 @ DET 30 | DET | DET -3.5 |
Basis: power ratings only (no betting line yet). 10,000 drive-by-drive simulations, calibrated so our percentages match how often teams actually won in a 2020-2026 backtest. Model version 1. How it works
No betting line exists for a game that isn't scheduled, so this uses our own power ratings (they pick about 65% of winners in the backtest). Flip home and away