DETPHI
Detroit Lions @ Philadelphia Eagles
Any-day matchup, Eagles at home · power ratings as of
Our pick
DETDetroit Lions
64% to win
A probability, not a promise: a 64% pick loses about 4 times in 10.
Advantages Why the Lions can win
- Lions passing game (1st in EPA) faces the Eagles defense that ranks 26th against it.
- Recent form: average margin over the last three games, Lions +7.0, Eagles -10.0.
- Point differential per game: Lions rank 9th (+3.2), Eagles 28th (-6.9).
- Season-long ratings: over the season, betting lines have rated Lions about 2.4 points stronger.
- Recent scoring margins: worth about 2.3 points to Lions in our ratings.
Disadvantages Why the Lions may not
- Upset odds: Eagles win 3,630 of 10,000 simulations (36%). A 64% pick still loses about 4 times in 10.
- Home field: Eagles play at home, worth roughly 1 to 2 points in recent seasons.
- Range of outcomes: in the worst 10% of simulations, Lions lose by 13 or more.
- Weak spot: Lions rank 32nd in explosive plays allowed per game (5.7).
- Weak spot: Lions rank 29th in defense, EPA per play allowed (+0.12).
The line and our numbers
| Market | AZMango | |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | No line yet | DET -3.7 |
| Total points | n/a | 49 |
| Win chance | DET n/a · PHI n/a | DET 64% · PHI 36% |
| Fair moneyline | DET -175 · PHI +175 |
No betting line for this pairing. Odds change all the time, so check a sportsbook before acting on any number here.
10,000 simulated games
- Typical score: PHI 23, DET 26.
- 80% of simulations land between DET by 21 and PHI by 13.
Side by side
| DET | PHI | |
|---|---|---|
| 4-2 | Record | 2-5 |
| 30.7 2 | Points per game | 18.1 29 |
| 27.5 26 | Points allowed | 25.0 21 |
| +0.14 4 | Offense EPA/play | -0.11 30 |
| +0.12 29 | Defense EPA/play allowed | +0.09 27 |
| +0.5 8 | Turnover margin/game | -0.4 21 |
| 7.5% 7 | Sacks per dropback | 3.2% 32 |
Small numbers are league ranks (1 = best). EPA (expected points added) measures how much each play changes a team's expected score.
Last 5 meetings
| Date | Game | Score | Winner | Closing line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-11-16 | 2025 Wk 11 | DET 9 @ PHI 16 | PHI | PHI -2.5 |
| 2022-09-11 | 2022 Wk 1 | PHI 38 @ DET 35 | PHI | PHI -6 |
| 2021-10-31 | 2021 Wk 8 | PHI 44 @ DET 6 | PHI | PHI -3 |
| 2019-09-22 | 2019 Wk 3 | DET 27 @ PHI 24 | DET | PHI -4 |
| 2016-10-09 | 2016 Wk 5 | PHI 23 @ DET 24 | DET | PHI -3.5 |
Basis: power ratings only (no betting line yet). 10,000 drive-by-drive simulations, calibrated so our percentages match how often teams actually won in a 2020-2026 backtest. Model version 1. How it works
No betting line exists for a game that isn't scheduled, so this uses our own power ratings (they pick about 65% of winners in the backtest). Flip home and away