DETSF
Detroit Lions @ San Francisco 49ers
Any-day matchup, 49ers at home · power ratings as of
Our pick
SFSan Francisco 49ers
59% to win
A probability, not a promise: a 59% pick loses about 4 times in 10.
Advantages Why the 49ers can win
- 49ers passing game (2nd in EPA) faces the Lions defense that ranks 28th against it.
- 49ers running game (3rd in EPA) faces the Lions defense that ranks 20th against it.
- Simulation: 49ers win 5,890 of 10,000 simulated games.
- Travel: Lions cross 3 time zones for this one.
- Home field: 49ers play at home, worth roughly 1 to 2 points in recent seasons.
Disadvantages Why the 49ers may not
- Lions passing game (1st in EPA) faces the 49ers defense that ranks 14th against it.
- 49ers are missing regulars: WR Mike Evans (out), WR Deebo Samuel Sr. (out).
- Upset odds: Lions win 4,110 of 10,000 simulations (41%). A 59% pick still loses about 4 times in 10.
- Recent form: average margin over the last three games, Lions +7.0, 49ers +0.0.
- Turnover margin per game: Lions rank 8th (+0.5), 49ers 21st (-0.4).
The line and our numbers
| Market | AZMango | |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | No line yet | SF -3.2 |
| Total points | n/a | 54 |
| Win chance | DET n/a · SF n/a | DET 41% · SF 59% |
| Fair moneyline | DET +144 · SF -144 |
No betting line for this pairing. Odds change all the time, so check a sportsbook before acting on any number here.
10,000 simulated games
- Typical score: SF 28, DET 26.
- 80% of simulations land between DET by 14 and SF by 20.
Side by side
| DET | SF | |
|---|---|---|
| 4-2 | Record | 6-1 |
| 30.7 2 | Points per game | 28.1 3 |
| 27.5 26 | Points allowed | 19.9 6 |
| +0.14 4 | Offense EPA/play | +0.19 2 |
| +0.12 29 | Defense EPA/play allowed | -0.03 12 |
| +0.5 8 | Turnover margin/game | -0.4 21 |
| 7.5% 7 | Sacks per dropback | 5.7% 21 |
Small numbers are league ranks (1 = best). EPA (expected points added) measures how much each play changes a team's expected score.
Last 5 meetings
| Date | Game | Score | Winner | Closing line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-12-30 | 2024 Wk 17 | DET 40 @ SF 34 | DET | DET -4 |
| 2024-01-28 | 2023 Conf. title | DET 31 @ SF 34 | SF | SF -7.5 |
| 2021-09-12 | 2021 Wk 1 | SF 41 @ DET 33 | SF | SF -9.5 |
| 2018-09-16 | 2018 Wk 2 | DET 27 @ SF 30 | SF | SF -6 |
| 2015-12-27 | 2015 Wk 16 | SF 17 @ DET 32 | DET | DET -8.5 |
Basis: power ratings only (no betting line yet). 10,000 drive-by-drive simulations, calibrated so our percentages match how often teams actually won in a 2020-2026 backtest. Model version 1. How it works
No betting line exists for a game that isn't scheduled, so this uses our own power ratings (they pick about 65% of winners in the backtest). Flip home and away