GBCAR
Green Bay Packers @ Carolina Panthers
Any-day matchup, Panthers at home · power ratings as of
Our pick
GBGreen Bay Packers
57% to win
A probability, not a promise: a 57% pick loses about 4 times in 10.
Advantages Why the Packers can win
- Panthers are missing regulars: CB Akayleb Evans (out), G Damien Lewis (out), LB Jaelan Phillips (out).
- Recent form: average margin over the last three games, Packers +5.0, Panthers -9.0.
- Simulation: Packers win 5,700 of 10,000 simulated games.
- Recent scoring margins: worth about 1.3 points to Packers in our ratings.
- Point differential per game: Packers rank 15th (+0.9), Panthers 24th (-2.1).
Disadvantages Why the Packers may not
- Packers are missing regulars: LB Zaire Franklin (out), G Travis Glover (out), C Sean Rhyan (out).
- Upset odds: Panthers win 4,300 of 10,000 simulations (43%). A 57% pick still loses about 4 times in 10.
- Home field: Panthers play at home, worth roughly 1 to 2 points in recent seasons.
- Packers have 1 regular listed questionable (Matthew Golden).
- Range of outcomes: in the worst 10% of simulations, Packers lose by 15 or more.
The line and our numbers
| Market | AZMango | |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | No line yet | GB -1.5 |
| Total points | n/a | 47.2 |
| Win chance | GB n/a · CAR n/a | GB 57% · CAR 43% |
| Fair moneyline | GB -132 · CAR +132 |
No betting line for this pairing. Odds change all the time, so check a sportsbook before acting on any number here.
10,000 simulated games
- Typical score: CAR 23, GB 24.
- 80% of simulations land between GB by 18 and CAR by 15.
Side by side
| GB | CAR | |
|---|---|---|
| 5-3 | Record | 3-4 |
| 21.4 23 | Points per game | 25.4 9 |
| 20.5 11 | Points allowed | 27.6 27 |
| +0.01 14 | Offense EPA/play | +0.02 13 |
| -0.06 4 | Defense EPA/play allowed | +0.05 23 |
| +0.5 8 | Turnover margin/game | +0.0 16 |
| 7.2% 11 | Sacks per dropback | 4.0% 28 |
Small numbers are league ranks (1 = best). EPA (expected points added) measures how much each play changes a team's expected score.
Last 5 meetings
| Date | Game | Score | Winner | Closing line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-29 | 2026 Wk 8 | CAR 19 @ GB 27 | GB | GB -3.5 |
| 2025-11-02 | 2025 Wk 9 | CAR 16 @ GB 13 | CAR | GB -12.5 |
| 2023-12-24 | 2023 Wk 16 | GB 33 @ CAR 30 | GB | GB -3.5 |
| 2020-12-19 | 2020 Wk 15 | CAR 16 @ GB 24 | GB | GB -9.5 |
| 2019-11-10 | 2019 Wk 10 | CAR 16 @ GB 24 | GB | GB -5 |
Basis: power ratings only (no betting line yet). 10,000 drive-by-drive simulations, calibrated so our percentages match how often teams actually won in a 2020-2026 backtest. Model version 1. How it works
No betting line exists for a game that isn't scheduled, so this uses our own power ratings (they pick about 65% of winners in the backtest). Flip home and away