GBDEN
Green Bay Packers @ Denver Broncos
Any-day matchup, Broncos at home · power ratings as of
Our pick
DENDenver Broncos
58% to win
A probability, not a promise: a 58% pick loses about 4 times in 10.
Advantages Why the Broncos can win
- Packers are missing regulars: LB Zaire Franklin (out), G Travis Glover (out), C Sean Rhyan (out).
- Simulation: Broncos win 5,780 of 10,000 simulated games.
- Home field: Broncos play at home, worth roughly 1 to 2 points in recent seasons.
- Season-long ratings: over the season, betting lines have rated Broncos about 0.9 points stronger.
- Packers have 1 regular listed questionable (Matthew Golden).
Disadvantages Why the Broncos may not
- Upset odds: Packers win 4,220 of 10,000 simulations (42%). A 58% pick still loses about 4 times in 10.
- Explosive plays (20+ yards) per game: Packers rank 3rd (4.5), Broncos 29th (2.3).
- Range of outcomes: in the worst 10% of simulations, Broncos lose by 14 or more.
- Weak spot: Broncos rank 29th in run defense, EPA per carry allowed (+0.01).
- Weak spot: Broncos rank 29th in explosive plays (20+ yards) per game (2.3).
The line and our numbers
| Market | AZMango | |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | No line yet | DEN -2.3 |
| Total points | n/a | 44.6 |
| Win chance | GB n/a · DEN n/a | GB 42% · DEN 58% |
| Fair moneyline | GB +137 · DEN -137 |
No betting line for this pairing. Odds change all the time, so check a sportsbook before acting on any number here.
10,000 simulated games
- Typical score: DEN 23, GB 20.
- 80% of simulations land between GB by 14 and DEN by 19.
Side by side
| GB | DEN | |
|---|---|---|
| 5-3 | Record | 5-2 |
| 21.4 23 | Points per game | 20.6 25 |
| 20.5 11 | Points allowed | 20.1 7 |
| +0.01 14 | Offense EPA/play | -0.05 25 |
| -0.06 4 | Defense EPA/play allowed | -0.04 8 |
| +0.5 8 | Turnover margin/game | +0.6 5 |
| 7.2% 11 | Sacks per dropback | 7.4% 9 |
Small numbers are league ranks (1 = best). EPA (expected points added) measures how much each play changes a team's expected score.
Last 5 meetings
| Date | Game | Score | Winner | Closing line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-12-14 | 2025 Wk 15 | GB 26 @ DEN 34 | DEN | GB -1.5 |
| 2023-10-22 | 2023 Wk 7 | GB 17 @ DEN 19 | DEN | DEN -1.5 |
| 2019-09-22 | 2019 Wk 3 | DEN 16 @ GB 27 | GB | GB -7 |
| 2015-11-01 | 2015 Wk 8 | GB 10 @ DEN 29 | DEN | GB -2.5 |
| 2011-10-02 | 2011 Wk 4 | DEN 23 @ GB 49 | GB | GB -12 |
Basis: power ratings only (no betting line yet). 10,000 drive-by-drive simulations, calibrated so our percentages match how often teams actually won in a 2020-2026 backtest. Model version 1. How it works
No betting line exists for a game that isn't scheduled, so this uses our own power ratings (they pick about 65% of winners in the backtest). Flip home and away