GBDET
Green Bay Packers @ Detroit Lions
Any-day matchup, Lions at home · power ratings as of
Our pick
DETDetroit Lions
58% to win
A probability, not a promise: a 58% pick loses about 4 times in 10.
Advantages Why the Lions can win
- Packers are missing regulars: LB Zaire Franklin (out), G Travis Glover (out), C Sean Rhyan (out).
- Simulation: Lions win 5,760 of 10,000 simulated games.
- Season-long ratings: over the season, betting lines have rated Lions about 1.3 points stronger.
- Home field: Lions play at home, worth roughly 1 to 2 points in recent seasons.
- Packers have 1 regular listed questionable (Matthew Golden).
Disadvantages Why the Lions may not
- Packers passing game (11th in EPA) faces the Lions defense that ranks 28th against it.
- Upset odds: Packers win 4,240 of 10,000 simulations (42%). A 58% pick still loses about 4 times in 10.
- Range of outcomes: in the worst 10% of simulations, Lions lose by 14 or more.
- Weak spot: Lions rank 32nd in explosive plays allowed per game (5.7).
- Weak spot: Lions rank 29th in defense, EPA per play allowed (+0.12).
The line and our numbers
| Market | AZMango | |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | No line yet | DET -2.5 |
| Total points | n/a | 51.6 |
| Win chance | GB n/a · DET n/a | GB 42% · DET 58% |
| Fair moneyline | GB +136 · DET -136 |
No betting line for this pairing. Odds change all the time, so check a sportsbook before acting on any number here.
10,000 simulated games
- Typical score: DET 27, GB 24.
- 80% of simulations land between GB by 14 and DET by 19.
Side by side
| GB | DET | |
|---|---|---|
| 5-3 | Record | 4-2 |
| 21.4 23 | Points per game | 30.7 2 |
| 20.5 11 | Points allowed | 27.5 26 |
| +0.01 14 | Offense EPA/play | +0.14 4 |
| -0.06 4 | Defense EPA/play allowed | +0.12 29 |
| +0.5 8 | Turnover margin/game | +0.5 8 |
| 7.2% 11 | Sacks per dropback | 7.5% 7 |
Small numbers are league ranks (1 = best). EPA (expected points added) measures how much each play changes a team's expected score.
Last 5 meetings
| Date | Game | Score | Winner | Closing line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-25 | 2026 Wk 7 | GB 17 @ DET 20 | DET | DET -3.5 |
| 2025-11-27 | 2025 Wk 13 | GB 31 @ DET 24 | GB | DET -2.5 |
| 2025-09-07 | 2025 Wk 1 | DET 13 @ GB 27 | GB | GB -1.5 |
| 2024-12-05 | 2024 Wk 14 | GB 31 @ DET 34 | DET | DET -3 |
| 2024-11-03 | 2024 Wk 9 | DET 24 @ GB 14 | DET | DET -2.5 |
Basis: power ratings only (no betting line yet). 10,000 drive-by-drive simulations, calibrated so our percentages match how often teams actually won in a 2020-2026 backtest. Model version 1. How it works
No betting line exists for a game that isn't scheduled, so this uses our own power ratings (they pick about 65% of winners in the backtest). Flip home and away