GBLA
Green Bay Packers @ Los Angeles Rams
Any-day matchup, Rams at home · power ratings as of
Our pick
LALos Angeles Rams
64% to win
A probability, not a promise: a 64% pick loses about 4 times in 10.
Advantages Why the Rams can win
- Packers are missing regulars: LB Zaire Franklin (out), G Travis Glover (out), C Sean Rhyan (out).
- Season-long ratings: over the season, betting lines have rated Rams about 2.3 points stronger.
- Simulation: Rams win 6,370 of 10,000 simulated games.
- Home field: Rams play at home, worth roughly 1 to 2 points in recent seasons.
- Travel: Packers cross 2 time zones for this one.
Disadvantages Why the Rams may not
- Turnover margin per game: Packers rank 8th (+0.5), Rams 29th (-0.7).
- Upset odds: Packers win 3,630 of 10,000 simulations (36%). A 64% pick still loses about 4 times in 10.
- Pass rush, sacks per dropback: Packers rank 11th (7.2%), Rams 27th (4.2%).
- Explosive plays (20+ yards) per game: Packers rank 3rd (4.5), Rams 17th (3.6).
- Range of outcomes: in the worst 10% of simulations, Rams lose by 11 or more.
The line and our numbers
| Market | AZMango | |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | No line yet | LA -4.2 |
| Total points | n/a | 48.2 |
| Win chance | GB n/a · LA n/a | GB 36% · LA 64% |
| Fair moneyline | GB +176 · LA -176 |
No betting line for this pairing. Odds change all the time, so check a sportsbook before acting on any number here.
10,000 simulated games
- Typical score: LA 26, GB 21.
- 80% of simulations land between GB by 11 and LA by 21.
Side by side
| GB | LA | |
|---|---|---|
| 5-3 | Record | 3-4 |
| 21.4 23 | Points per game | 24.3 11 |
| 20.5 11 | Points allowed | 22.7 16 |
| +0.01 14 | Offense EPA/play | +0.06 10 |
| -0.06 4 | Defense EPA/play allowed | -0.06 5 |
| +0.5 8 | Turnover margin/game | -0.7 29 |
| 7.2% 11 | Sacks per dropback | 4.2% 27 |
Small numbers are league ranks (1 = best). EPA (expected points added) measures how much each play changes a team's expected score.
Last 5 meetings
| Date | Game | Score | Winner | Closing line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-10-06 | 2024 Wk 5 | GB 24 @ LA 19 | GB | GB -3 |
| 2023-11-05 | 2023 Wk 9 | LA 3 @ GB 20 | GB | GB -3.5 |
| 2022-12-19 | 2022 Wk 15 | LA 12 @ GB 24 | GB | GB -8 |
| 2021-11-28 | 2021 Wk 12 | LA 28 @ GB 36 | GB | LA -2 |
| 2021-01-16 | 2020 Divisional | LA 18 @ GB 32 | GB | GB -7 |
Basis: power ratings only (no betting line yet). 10,000 drive-by-drive simulations, calibrated so our percentages match how often teams actually won in a 2020-2026 backtest. Model version 1. How it works
No betting line exists for a game that isn't scheduled, so this uses our own power ratings (they pick about 65% of winners in the backtest). Flip home and away