GBMIA
Green Bay Packers @ Miami Dolphins
Any-day matchup, Dolphins at home · power ratings as of
Our pick
GBGreen Bay Packers
71% to win
A probability, not a promise: a 71% pick loses about 3 times in 10.
Advantages Why the Packers can win
- Season-long ratings: over the season, betting lines have rated Packers about 4.7 points stronger.
- Packers passing game (11th in EPA) faces the Dolphins defense that ranks 32nd against it.
- Recent scoring margins: worth about 2.4 points to Packers in our ratings.
- Simulation: Packers win 7,110 of 10,000 simulated games.
- Point differential per game: Packers rank 15th (+0.9), Dolphins 31st (-9.8).
Disadvantages Why the Packers may not
- Packers are missing regulars: LB Zaire Franklin (out), G Travis Glover (out), C Sean Rhyan (out).
- Home field: Dolphins play at home, worth roughly 1 to 2 points in recent seasons.
- Upset odds: Dolphins win 2,890 of 10,000 simulations (29%). A 71% pick still loses about 3 times in 10.
- Penalty yards per game: Dolphins rank 4th (47.7), Packers 32nd (73.9).
- Packers have 1 regular listed questionable (Matthew Golden).
The line and our numbers
| Market | AZMango | |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | No line yet | GB -6.3 |
| Total points | n/a | 44.6 |
| Win chance | GB n/a · MIA n/a | GB 71% · MIA 29% |
| Fair moneyline | GB -246 · MIA +246 |
No betting line for this pairing. Odds change all the time, so check a sportsbook before acting on any number here.
10,000 simulated games
- Typical score: MIA 19, GB 24.
- 80% of simulations land between GB by 24 and MIA by 10.
Side by side
| GB | MIA | |
|---|---|---|
| 5-3 | Record | 1-5 |
| 21.4 23 | Points per game | 16.3 30 |
| 20.5 11 | Points allowed | 26.2 25 |
| +0.01 14 | Offense EPA/play | -0.04 21 |
| -0.06 4 | Defense EPA/play allowed | +0.12 30 |
| +0.5 8 | Turnover margin/game | -0.5 26 |
| 7.2% 11 | Sacks per dropback | 3.3% 30 |
Small numbers are league ranks (1 = best). EPA (expected points added) measures how much each play changes a team's expected score.
Last 5 meetings
| Date | Game | Score | Winner | Closing line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-11-28 | 2024 Wk 13 | MIA 17 @ GB 30 | GB | GB -3.5 |
| 2022-12-25 | 2022 Wk 16 | GB 26 @ MIA 20 | GB | MIA -3.5 |
| 2018-11-11 | 2018 Wk 10 | MIA 12 @ GB 31 | GB | GB -13 |
| 2014-10-12 | 2014 Wk 6 | GB 27 @ MIA 24 | GB | GB -1.5 |
| 2010-10-17 | 2010 Wk 6 | MIA 23 @ GB 20 | MIA | GB -3 |
Basis: power ratings only (no betting line yet). 10,000 drive-by-drive simulations, calibrated so our percentages match how often teams actually won in a 2020-2026 backtest. Model version 1. How it works
No betting line exists for a game that isn't scheduled, so this uses our own power ratings (they pick about 65% of winners in the backtest). Flip home and away