GBSEA
Green Bay Packers @ Seattle Seahawks
Any-day matchup, Seahawks at home · power ratings as of
Our pick
SEASeattle Seahawks
66% to win
A probability, not a promise: a 66% pick loses about 3 times in 10.
Advantages Why the Seahawks can win
- Packers are missing regulars: LB Zaire Franklin (out), G Travis Glover (out), C Sean Rhyan (out).
- Season-long ratings: over the season, betting lines have rated Seahawks about 2.2 points stronger.
- Simulation: Seahawks win 6,640 of 10,000 simulated games.
- Home field: Seahawks play at home, worth roughly 1 to 2 points in recent seasons.
- Point differential per game: Seahawks rank 6th (+6.1), Packers 15th (+0.9).
Disadvantages Why the Seahawks may not
- Seahawks are missing regulars: LB Drake Thomas (out).
- Upset odds: Packers win 3,360 of 10,000 simulations (34%). A 66% pick still loses about 3 times in 10.
- Seahawks have 2 regulars listed questionable (Nick Emmanwori, DeMarcus Lawrence).
- Turnover margin per game: Packers rank 8th (+0.5), Seahawks 18th (-0.1).
- Explosive plays (20+ yards) per game: Packers rank 3rd (4.5), Seahawks 17th (3.6).
The line and our numbers
| Market | AZMango | |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | No line yet | SEA -5.2 |
| Total points | n/a | 44.4 |
| Win chance | GB n/a · SEA n/a | GB 34% · SEA 66% |
| Fair moneyline | GB +198 · SEA -198 |
No betting line for this pairing. Odds change all the time, so check a sportsbook before acting on any number here.
10,000 simulated games
- Typical score: SEA 24, GB 20.
- 80% of simulations land between GB by 11 and SEA by 21.
Side by side
| GB | SEA | |
|---|---|---|
| 5-3 | Record | 4-3 |
| 21.4 23 | Points per game | 24.0 13 |
| 20.5 11 | Points allowed | 17.9 4 |
| +0.01 14 | Offense EPA/play | -0.05 24 |
| -0.06 4 | Defense EPA/play allowed | -0.13 2 |
| +0.5 8 | Turnover margin/game | -0.1 18 |
| 7.2% 11 | Sacks per dropback | 7.4% 8 |
Small numbers are league ranks (1 = best). EPA (expected points added) measures how much each play changes a team's expected score.
Last 5 meetings
| Date | Game | Score | Winner | Closing line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-12-15 | 2024 Wk 15 | GB 30 @ SEA 13 | GB | GB -3 |
| 2021-11-14 | 2021 Wk 10 | SEA 0 @ GB 17 | GB | GB -3 |
| 2020-01-12 | 2019 Divisional | SEA 23 @ GB 28 | GB | GB -4.5 |
| 2018-11-15 | 2018 Wk 11 | GB 24 @ SEA 27 | SEA | SEA -3 |
| 2017-09-10 | 2017 Wk 1 | SEA 9 @ GB 17 | GB | GB -2.5 |
Basis: power ratings only (no betting line yet). 10,000 drive-by-drive simulations, calibrated so our percentages match how often teams actually won in a 2020-2026 backtest. Model version 1. How it works
No betting line exists for a game that isn't scheduled, so this uses our own power ratings (they pick about 65% of winners in the backtest). Flip home and away