HOUCHI
Houston Texans @ Chicago Bears
Any-day matchup, Bears at home · power ratings as of
Our pick
CHIChicago Bears
56% to win
A probability, not a promise: a 56% pick loses about 4 times in 10.
Advantages Why the Bears can win
- Texans are missing regulars: S Reed Blankenship (out), S Jalen Pitre (out).
- Point differential per game: Bears rank 7th (+5.3), Texans 20th (-0.7).
- Simulation: Bears win 5,600 of 10,000 simulated games.
- Home field: Bears play at home, worth roughly 1 to 2 points in recent seasons.
- Recent scoring margins: worth about 0.9 points to Bears in our ratings.
Disadvantages Why the Bears may not
- Recent form: average margin over the last three games, Texans +6.7, Bears -3.3.
- Upset odds: Texans win 4,400 of 10,000 simulations (44%). A 56% pick still loses about 4 times in 10.
- Season-long ratings: over the season, betting lines have rated Texans about 0.9 points stronger.
- Range of outcomes: in the worst 10% of simulations, Bears lose by 14 or more.
- Turnover margin per game: Texans rank 11th (+0.4), Bears 18th (-0.1).
The line and our numbers
| Market | AZMango | |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | No line yet | CHI -1.7 |
| Total points | n/a | 46.7 |
| Win chance | HOU n/a · CHI n/a | HOU 44% · CHI 56% |
| Fair moneyline | HOU +127 · CHI -127 |
No betting line for this pairing. Odds change all the time, so check a sportsbook before acting on any number here.
10,000 simulated games
- Typical score: CHI 24, HOU 23.
- 80% of simulations land between HOU by 14 and CHI by 18.
Side by side
| HOU | CHI | |
|---|---|---|
| 2-5 | Record | 5-2 |
| 23.6 15 | Points per game | 25.7 7 |
| 24.3 19 | Points allowed | 20.4 9 |
| +0.02 12 | Offense EPA/play | +0.04 11 |
| +0.03 18 | Defense EPA/play allowed | +0.01 17 |
| +0.4 11 | Turnover margin/game | -0.1 18 |
| 7.9% 5 | Sacks per dropback | 8.9% 3 |
Small numbers are league ranks (1 = best). EPA (expected points added) measures how much each play changes a team's expected score.
Last 5 meetings
| Date | Game | Score | Winner | Closing line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-09-15 | 2024 Wk 2 | CHI 13 @ HOU 19 | HOU | HOU -6 |
| 2022-09-25 | 2022 Wk 3 | HOU 20 @ CHI 23 | CHI | CHI -3 |
| 2020-12-13 | 2020 Wk 14 | HOU 7 @ CHI 36 | CHI | HOU -1 |
| 2016-09-11 | 2016 Wk 1 | CHI 14 @ HOU 23 | HOU | HOU -5.5 |
| 2012-11-11 | 2012 Wk 10 | HOU 13 @ CHI 6 | HOU | CHI -1 |
Basis: power ratings only (no betting line yet). 10,000 drive-by-drive simulations, calibrated so our percentages match how often teams actually won in a 2020-2026 backtest. Model version 1. How it works
No betting line exists for a game that isn't scheduled, so this uses our own power ratings (they pick about 65% of winners in the backtest). Flip home and away