HOUCLE
Houston Texans @ Cleveland Browns
Any-day matchup, Browns at home · power ratings as of
Our pick
HOUHouston Texans
64% to win
A probability, not a promise: a 64% pick loses about 4 times in 10.
Advantages Why the Texans can win
- Season-long ratings: over the season, betting lines have rated Texans about 4.4 points stronger.
- Simulation: Texans win 6,400 of 10,000 simulated games.
- Recent form: average margin over the last three games, Texans +6.7, Browns +0.3.
- Pass protection, sacks allowed per dropback: Texans rank 15th (5.7%), Browns 32nd (10.6%).
- Explosive plays (20+ yards) per game: Texans rank 4th (4.0), Browns 17th (3.6).
Disadvantages Why the Texans may not
- Texans are missing regulars: S Reed Blankenship (out), S Jalen Pitre (out).
- Upset odds: Browns win 3,600 of 10,000 simulations (36%). A 64% pick still loses about 4 times in 10.
- Home field: Browns play at home, worth roughly 1 to 2 points in recent seasons.
- Range of outcomes: in the worst 10% of simulations, Texans lose by 12 or more.
- History: Browns won 4 of the last 5 meetings (old results say little about this year's teams).
The line and our numbers
| Market | AZMango | |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | No line yet | HOU -3.7 |
| Total points | n/a | 41.5 |
| Win chance | HOU n/a · CLE n/a | HOU 64% · CLE 36% |
| Fair moneyline | HOU -178 · CLE +178 |
No betting line for this pairing. Odds change all the time, so check a sportsbook before acting on any number here.
10,000 simulated games
- Typical score: CLE 19, HOU 23.
- 80% of simulations land between HOU by 21 and CLE by 12.
Side by side
| HOU | CLE | |
|---|---|---|
| 2-5 | Record | 5-2 |
| 23.6 15 | Points per game | 19.0 28 |
| 24.3 19 | Points allowed | 20.9 12 |
| +0.02 12 | Offense EPA/play | -0.03 20 |
| +0.03 18 | Defense EPA/play allowed | -0.03 13 |
| +0.4 11 | Turnover margin/game | +0.0 16 |
| 7.9% 5 | Sacks per dropback | 7.8% 6 |
Small numbers are league ranks (1 = best). EPA (expected points added) measures how much each play changes a team's expected score.
Last 5 meetings
| Date | Game | Score | Winner | Closing line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-01-13 | 2023 Wild Card | CLE 14 @ HOU 45 | HOU | CLE -2.5 |
| 2023-12-24 | 2023 Wk 16 | CLE 36 @ HOU 22 | CLE | CLE -3 |
| 2022-12-04 | 2022 Wk 13 | CLE 27 @ HOU 14 | CLE | CLE -7.5 |
| 2021-09-19 | 2021 Wk 2 | HOU 21 @ CLE 31 | CLE | CLE -13.5 |
| 2020-11-15 | 2020 Wk 10 | HOU 7 @ CLE 10 | CLE | CLE -4.5 |
Basis: power ratings only (no betting line yet). 10,000 drive-by-drive simulations, calibrated so our percentages match how often teams actually won in a 2020-2026 backtest. Model version 1. How it works
No betting line exists for a game that isn't scheduled, so this uses our own power ratings (they pick about 65% of winners in the backtest). Flip home and away