HOUDET
Houston Texans @ Detroit Lions
Any-day matchup, Lions at home · power ratings as of
Our pick
DETDetroit Lions
56% to win
A probability, not a promise: a 56% pick loses about 4 times in 10.
Advantages Why the Lions can win
- Texans are missing regulars: S Reed Blankenship (out), S Jalen Pitre (out).
- Lions passing game (1st in EPA) faces the Texans defense that ranks 17th against it.
- Point differential per game: Lions rank 9th (+3.2), Texans 20th (-0.7).
- Simulation: Lions win 5,650 of 10,000 simulated games.
- Home field: Lions play at home, worth roughly 1 to 2 points in recent seasons.
Disadvantages Why the Lions may not
- Texans passing game (15th in EPA) faces the Lions defense that ranks 28th against it.
- Upset odds: Texans win 4,350 of 10,000 simulations (44%). A 56% pick still loses about 4 times in 10.
- Range of outcomes: in the worst 10% of simulations, Lions lose by 14 or more.
- History: Texans won 4 of the last 5 meetings (old results say little about this year's teams).
- Weak spot: Lions rank 32nd in explosive plays allowed per game (5.7).
The line and our numbers
| Market | AZMango | |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | No line yet | DET -2.3 |
| Total points | n/a | 50.4 |
| Win chance | HOU n/a · DET n/a | HOU 44% · DET 56% |
| Fair moneyline | HOU +130 · DET -130 |
No betting line for this pairing. Odds change all the time, so check a sportsbook before acting on any number here.
10,000 simulated games
- Typical score: DET 26, HOU 24.
- 80% of simulations land between HOU by 14 and DET by 20.
Side by side
| HOU | DET | |
|---|---|---|
| 2-5 | Record | 4-2 |
| 23.6 15 | Points per game | 30.7 2 |
| 24.3 19 | Points allowed | 27.5 26 |
| +0.02 12 | Offense EPA/play | +0.14 4 |
| +0.03 18 | Defense EPA/play allowed | +0.12 29 |
| +0.4 11 | Turnover margin/game | +0.5 8 |
| 7.9% 5 | Sacks per dropback | 7.5% 7 |
Small numbers are league ranks (1 = best). EPA (expected points added) measures how much each play changes a team's expected score.
Last 5 meetings
| Date | Game | Score | Winner | Closing line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-11-10 | 2024 Wk 10 | DET 26 @ HOU 23 | DET | DET -4.5 |
| 2020-11-26 | 2020 Wk 12 | HOU 41 @ DET 25 | HOU | HOU -3 |
| 2016-10-30 | 2016 Wk 8 | DET 13 @ HOU 20 | HOU | HOU -1 |
| 2012-11-22 | 2012 Wk 12 | HOU 34 @ DET 31 | HOU | HOU -3.5 |
| 2008-10-19 | 2008 Wk 7 | DET 21 @ HOU 28 | HOU | HOU -11 |
Basis: power ratings only (no betting line yet). 10,000 drive-by-drive simulations, calibrated so our percentages match how often teams actually won in a 2020-2026 backtest. Model version 1. How it works
No betting line exists for a game that isn't scheduled, so this uses our own power ratings (they pick about 65% of winners in the backtest). Flip home and away