HOUGB
Houston Texans @ Green Bay Packers
Any-day matchup, Packers at home · power ratings as of
Our pick
GBGreen Bay Packers
54% to win
A probability, not a promise: a 54% pick loses about 5 times in 10.
Advantages Why the Packers can win
- Texans are missing regulars: S Reed Blankenship (out), S Jalen Pitre (out).
- Simulation: Packers win 5,350 of 10,000 simulated games.
- Home field: Packers play at home, worth roughly 1 to 2 points in recent seasons.
- Packers passing game (11th in EPA) faces the Texans defense that ranks 17th against it.
- History: Packers won 4 of the last 5 meetings (old results say little about this year's teams).
Disadvantages Why the Packers may not
- Packers are missing regulars: LB Zaire Franklin (out), G Travis Glover (out), C Sean Rhyan (out).
- Upset odds: Texans win 4,650 of 10,000 simulations (46%). A 54% pick still loses about 5 times in 10.
- Season-long ratings: over the season, betting lines have rated Texans about 1.0 points stronger.
- Packers have 1 regular listed questionable (Matthew Golden).
- Range of outcomes: in the worst 10% of simulations, Packers lose by 15 or more.
The line and our numbers
| Market | AZMango | |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | No line yet | GB -1.4 |
| Total points | n/a | 44.8 |
| Win chance | HOU n/a · GB n/a | HOU 46% · GB 54% |
| Fair moneyline | HOU +115 · GB -115 |
No betting line for this pairing. Odds change all the time, so check a sportsbook before acting on any number here.
10,000 simulated games
- Typical score: GB 23, HOU 21.
- 80% of simulations land between HOU by 15 and GB by 18.
Side by side
| HOU | GB | |
|---|---|---|
| 2-5 | Record | 5-3 |
| 23.6 15 | Points per game | 21.4 23 |
| 24.3 19 | Points allowed | 20.5 11 |
| +0.02 12 | Offense EPA/play | +0.01 14 |
| +0.03 18 | Defense EPA/play allowed | -0.06 4 |
| +0.4 11 | Turnover margin/game | +0.5 8 |
| 7.9% 5 | Sacks per dropback | 7.2% 11 |
Small numbers are league ranks (1 = best). EPA (expected points added) measures how much each play changes a team's expected score.
Last 5 meetings
| Date | Game | Score | Winner | Closing line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-10-20 | 2024 Wk 7 | HOU 22 @ GB 24 | GB | GB -3 |
| 2020-10-25 | 2020 Wk 7 | GB 35 @ HOU 20 | GB | GB -2.5 |
| 2016-12-04 | 2016 Wk 13 | HOU 13 @ GB 21 | GB | GB -7 |
| 2012-10-14 | 2012 Wk 6 | GB 42 @ HOU 24 | GB | HOU -4 |
| 2008-12-07 | 2008 Wk 14 | HOU 24 @ GB 21 | HOU | GB -7 |
Basis: power ratings only (no betting line yet). 10,000 drive-by-drive simulations, calibrated so our percentages match how often teams actually won in a 2020-2026 backtest. Model version 1. How it works
No betting line exists for a game that isn't scheduled, so this uses our own power ratings (they pick about 65% of winners in the backtest). Flip home and away