HOUJAX
Houston Texans @ Jacksonville Jaguars
Any-day matchup, Jaguars at home · power ratings as of
Our pick
JAXJacksonville Jaguars
62% to win
A probability, not a promise: a 62% pick loses about 4 times in 10.
Advantages Why the Jaguars can win
- Point differential per game: Jaguars rank 2nd (+8.3), Texans 20th (-0.7).
- Texans are missing regulars: S Reed Blankenship (out), S Jalen Pitre (out).
- Simulation: Jaguars win 6,220 of 10,000 simulated games.
- Jaguars passing game (4th in EPA) faces the Texans defense that ranks 17th against it.
- Recent scoring margins: worth about 1.4 points to Jaguars in our ratings.
Disadvantages Why the Jaguars may not
- Upset odds: Texans win 3,780 of 10,000 simulations (38%). A 62% pick still loses about 4 times in 10.
- Pass rush, sacks per dropback: Texans rank 5th (7.9%), Jaguars 24th (4.5%).
- Range of outcomes: in the worst 10% of simulations, Jaguars lose by 12 or more.
- History: Texans won 4 of the last 5 meetings (old results say little about this year's teams).
- Weak spot: Jaguars rank 25th in penalty yards per game (68.7).
The line and our numbers
| Market | AZMango | |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | No line yet | JAX -3.9 |
| Total points | n/a | 45.4 |
| Win chance | HOU n/a · JAX n/a | HOU 38% · JAX 62% |
| Fair moneyline | HOU +165 · JAX -165 |
No betting line for this pairing. Odds change all the time, so check a sportsbook before acting on any number here.
10,000 simulated games
- Typical score: JAX 24, HOU 20.
- 80% of simulations land between HOU by 12 and JAX by 21.
Side by side
| HOU | JAX | |
|---|---|---|
| 2-5 | Record | 4-2 |
| 23.6 15 | Points per game | 25.7 8 |
| 24.3 19 | Points allowed | 17.3 3 |
| +0.02 12 | Offense EPA/play | +0.15 3 |
| +0.03 18 | Defense EPA/play allowed | -0.03 11 |
| +0.4 11 | Turnover margin/game | +0.8 3 |
| 7.9% 5 | Sacks per dropback | 4.5% 24 |
Small numbers are league ranks (1 = best). EPA (expected points added) measures how much each play changes a team's expected score.
Last 5 meetings
| Date | Game | Score | Winner | Closing line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-18 | 2026 Wk 6 | HOU 34 @ JAX 31 | HOU | JAX -2.5 |
| 2025-11-09 | 2025 Wk 10 | JAX 29 @ HOU 36 | HOU | JAX -1.5 |
| 2025-09-21 | 2025 Wk 3 | HOU 10 @ JAX 17 | JAX | JAX -1.5 |
| 2024-12-01 | 2024 Wk 13 | HOU 23 @ JAX 20 | HOU | HOU -3.5 |
| 2024-09-29 | 2024 Wk 4 | JAX 20 @ HOU 24 | HOU | HOU -5.5 |
Basis: power ratings only (no betting line yet). 10,000 drive-by-drive simulations, calibrated so our percentages match how often teams actually won in a 2020-2026 backtest. Model version 1. How it works
No betting line exists for a game that isn't scheduled, so this uses our own power ratings (they pick about 65% of winners in the backtest). Flip home and away