HOULA
Houston Texans @ Los Angeles Rams
Any-day matchup, Rams at home · power ratings as of
Our pick
LALos Angeles Rams
62% to win
A probability, not a promise: a 62% pick loses about 4 times in 10.
Advantages Why the Rams can win
- Texans are missing regulars: S Reed Blankenship (out), S Jalen Pitre (out).
- Simulation: Rams win 6,210 of 10,000 simulated games.
- Season-long ratings: over the season, betting lines have rated Rams about 1.3 points stronger.
- Home field: Rams play at home, worth roughly 1 to 2 points in recent seasons.
- Rams running game (11th in EPA) faces the Texans defense that ranks 23rd against it.
Disadvantages Why the Rams may not
- Turnover margin per game: Texans rank 11th (+0.4), Rams 29th (-0.7).
- Upset odds: Texans win 3,790 of 10,000 simulations (38%). A 62% pick still loses about 4 times in 10.
- Pass rush, sacks per dropback: Texans rank 5th (7.9%), Rams 27th (4.2%).
- Explosive plays (20+ yards) per game: Texans rank 4th (4.0), Rams 17th (3.6).
- Range of outcomes: in the worst 10% of simulations, Rams lose by 12 or more.
The line and our numbers
| Market | AZMango | |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | No line yet | LA -3.9 |
| Total points | n/a | 47 |
| Win chance | HOU n/a · LA n/a | HOU 38% · LA 62% |
| Fair moneyline | HOU +164 · LA -164 |
No betting line for this pairing. Odds change all the time, so check a sportsbook before acting on any number here.
10,000 simulated games
- Typical score: LA 25, HOU 21.
- 80% of simulations land between HOU by 12 and LA by 21.
Side by side
| HOU | LA | |
|---|---|---|
| 2-5 | Record | 3-4 |
| 23.6 15 | Points per game | 24.3 11 |
| 24.3 19 | Points allowed | 22.7 16 |
| +0.02 12 | Offense EPA/play | +0.06 10 |
| +0.03 18 | Defense EPA/play allowed | -0.06 5 |
| +0.4 11 | Turnover margin/game | -0.7 29 |
| 7.9% 5 | Sacks per dropback | 4.2% 27 |
Small numbers are league ranks (1 = best). EPA (expected points added) measures how much each play changes a team's expected score.
Last 5 meetings
| Date | Game | Score | Winner | Closing line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-09-07 | 2025 Wk 1 | HOU 9 @ LA 14 | LA | LA -3.5 |
| 2021-10-31 | 2021 Wk 8 | LA 38 @ HOU 22 | LA | LA -17 |
| 2017-11-12 | 2017 Wk 10 | HOU 7 @ LA 33 | LA | LA -12 |
| 2013-10-13 | 2013 Wk 6 | LA 38 @ HOU 13 | LA | HOU -9.5 |
| 2009-12-20 | 2009 Wk 15 | HOU 16 @ LA 13 | HOU | HOU -14 |
Basis: power ratings only (no betting line yet). 10,000 drive-by-drive simulations, calibrated so our percentages match how often teams actually won in a 2020-2026 backtest. Model version 1. How it works
No betting line exists for a game that isn't scheduled, so this uses our own power ratings (they pick about 65% of winners in the backtest). Flip home and away