HOULAC
Houston Texans @ Los Angeles Chargers
Any-day matchup, Chargers at home · power ratings as of
Our pick
HOUHouston Texans
61% to win
A probability, not a promise: a 61% pick loses about 4 times in 10.
Advantages Why the Texans can win
- Recent form: average margin over the last three games, Texans +6.7, Chargers -9.7.
- Season-long ratings: over the season, betting lines have rated Texans about 2.2 points stronger.
- Recent scoring margins: worth about 2.2 points to Texans in our ratings.
- Simulation: Texans win 6,130 of 10,000 simulated games.
- Turnover margin per game: Texans rank 11th (+0.4), Chargers 30th (-0.8).
Disadvantages Why the Texans may not
- Texans are missing regulars: S Reed Blankenship (out), S Jalen Pitre (out).
- Upset odds: Chargers win 3,870 of 10,000 simulations (39%). A 61% pick still loses about 4 times in 10.
- Home field: Chargers play at home, worth roughly 1 to 2 points in recent seasons.
- Travel: Texans cross 2 time zones for this one.
- Range of outcomes: in the worst 10% of simulations, Texans lose by 13 or more.
The line and our numbers
| Market | AZMango | |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | No line yet | HOU -2.9 |
| Total points | n/a | 43.7 |
| Win chance | HOU n/a · LAC n/a | HOU 61% · LAC 39% |
| Fair moneyline | HOU -158 · LAC +158 |
No betting line for this pairing. Odds change all the time, so check a sportsbook before acting on any number here.
10,000 simulated games
- Typical score: LAC 20, HOU 23.
- 80% of simulations land between HOU by 20 and LAC by 13.
Side by side
| HOU | LAC | |
|---|---|---|
| 2-5 | Record | 0-6 |
| 23.6 15 | Points per game | 15.0 32 |
| 24.3 19 | Points allowed | 25.2 22 |
| +0.02 12 | Offense EPA/play | -0.20 32 |
| +0.03 18 | Defense EPA/play allowed | -0.05 7 |
| +0.4 11 | Turnover margin/game | -0.8 30 |
| 7.9% 5 | Sacks per dropback | 6.0% 19 |
Small numbers are league ranks (1 = best). EPA (expected points added) measures how much each play changes a team's expected score.
Last 5 meetings
| Date | Game | Score | Winner | Closing line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-12-27 | 2025 Wk 17 | HOU 20 @ LAC 16 | HOU | LAC -1.5 |
| 2025-01-11 | 2024 Wild Card | LAC 12 @ HOU 32 | HOU | LAC -3 |
| 2022-10-02 | 2022 Wk 4 | LAC 34 @ HOU 24 | LAC | LAC -5.5 |
| 2021-12-26 | 2021 Wk 16 | LAC 29 @ HOU 41 | HOU | LAC -13.5 |
| 2019-09-22 | 2019 Wk 3 | HOU 27 @ LAC 20 | HOU | LAC -3 |
Basis: power ratings only (no betting line yet). 10,000 drive-by-drive simulations, calibrated so our percentages match how often teams actually won in a 2020-2026 backtest. Model version 1. How it works
No betting line exists for a game that isn't scheduled, so this uses our own power ratings (they pick about 65% of winners in the backtest). Flip home and away