HOUMIA
Houston Texans @ Miami Dolphins
Any-day matchup, Dolphins at home · power ratings as of
Our pick
HOUHouston Texans
73% to win
A probability, not a promise: a 73% pick loses about 3 times in 10.
Advantages Why the Texans can win
- Season-long ratings: over the season, betting lines have rated Texans about 5.6 points stronger.
- Simulation: Texans win 7,330 of 10,000 simulated games.
- Texans passing game (15th in EPA) faces the Dolphins defense that ranks 32nd against it.
- Recent scoring margins: worth about 1.9 points to Texans in our ratings.
- Recent form: average margin over the last three games, Texans +6.7, Dolphins -3.0.
Disadvantages Why the Texans may not
- Texans are missing regulars: S Reed Blankenship (out), S Jalen Pitre (out).
- Dolphins running game (7th in EPA) faces the Texans defense that ranks 23rd against it.
- Home field: Dolphins play at home, worth roughly 1 to 2 points in recent seasons.
- Upset odds: Dolphins win 2,670 of 10,000 simulations (27%). A 73% pick still loses about 3 times in 10.
- Penalty yards per game: Dolphins rank 4th (47.7), Texans 28th (72.6).
The line and our numbers
| Market | AZMango | |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | No line yet | HOU -6.5 |
| Total points | n/a | 43.4 |
| Win chance | HOU n/a · MIA n/a | HOU 73% · MIA 27% |
| Fair moneyline | HOU -274 · MIA +274 |
No betting line for this pairing. Odds change all the time, so check a sportsbook before acting on any number here.
10,000 simulated games
- Typical score: MIA 17, HOU 24.
- 80% of simulations land between HOU by 24 and MIA by 9.
Side by side
| HOU | MIA | |
|---|---|---|
| 2-5 | Record | 1-5 |
| 23.6 15 | Points per game | 16.3 30 |
| 24.3 19 | Points allowed | 26.2 25 |
| +0.02 12 | Offense EPA/play | -0.04 21 |
| +0.03 18 | Defense EPA/play allowed | +0.12 30 |
| +0.4 11 | Turnover margin/game | -0.5 26 |
| 7.9% 5 | Sacks per dropback | 3.3% 30 |
Small numbers are league ranks (1 = best). EPA (expected points added) measures how much each play changes a team's expected score.
Last 5 meetings
| Date | Game | Score | Winner | Closing line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-12-15 | 2024 Wk 15 | MIA 12 @ HOU 20 | HOU | HOU -2.5 |
| 2022-11-27 | 2022 Wk 12 | HOU 15 @ MIA 30 | MIA | MIA -14 |
| 2021-11-07 | 2021 Wk 9 | HOU 9 @ MIA 17 | MIA | MIA -4 |
| 2018-10-25 | 2018 Wk 8 | MIA 23 @ HOU 42 | HOU | HOU -7.5 |
| 2015-10-25 | 2015 Wk 7 | HOU 26 @ MIA 44 | MIA | MIA -4.5 |
Basis: power ratings only (no betting line yet). 10,000 drive-by-drive simulations, calibrated so our percentages match how often teams actually won in a 2020-2026 backtest. Model version 1. How it works
No betting line exists for a game that isn't scheduled, so this uses our own power ratings (they pick about 65% of winners in the backtest). Flip home and away