HOUPHI
Houston Texans @ Philadelphia Eagles
Any-day matchup, Eagles at home · power ratings as of
Our pick
HOUHouston Texans
62% to win
A probability, not a promise: a 62% pick loses about 4 times in 10.
Advantages Why the Texans can win
- Recent form: average margin over the last three games, Texans +6.7, Eagles -10.0.
- Season-long ratings: over the season, betting lines have rated Texans about 2.0 points stronger.
- Recent scoring margins: worth about 1.9 points to Texans in our ratings.
- Simulation: Texans win 6,180 of 10,000 simulated games.
- Explosive plays (20+ yards) per game: Texans rank 4th (4.0), Eagles 31st (2.0).
Disadvantages Why the Texans may not
- Texans are missing regulars: S Reed Blankenship (out), S Jalen Pitre (out).
- Upset odds: Eagles win 3,820 of 10,000 simulations (38%). A 62% pick still loses about 4 times in 10.
- Home field: Eagles play at home, worth roughly 1 to 2 points in recent seasons.
- Range of outcomes: in the worst 10% of simulations, Texans lose by 13 or more.
- History: Eagles won 5 of the last 5 meetings (old results say little about this year's teams).
The line and our numbers
| Market | AZMango | |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | No line yet | HOU -3 |
| Total points | n/a | 42.2 |
| Win chance | HOU n/a · PHI n/a | HOU 62% · PHI 38% |
| Fair moneyline | HOU -162 · PHI +162 |
No betting line for this pairing. Odds change all the time, so check a sportsbook before acting on any number here.
10,000 simulated games
- Typical score: PHI 20, HOU 23.
- 80% of simulations land between HOU by 20 and PHI by 13.
Side by side
| HOU | PHI | |
|---|---|---|
| 2-5 | Record | 2-5 |
| 23.6 15 | Points per game | 18.1 29 |
| 24.3 19 | Points allowed | 25.0 21 |
| +0.02 12 | Offense EPA/play | -0.11 30 |
| +0.03 18 | Defense EPA/play allowed | +0.09 27 |
| +0.4 11 | Turnover margin/game | -0.4 21 |
| 7.9% 5 | Sacks per dropback | 3.2% 32 |
Small numbers are league ranks (1 = best). EPA (expected points added) measures how much each play changes a team's expected score.
Last 5 meetings
| Date | Game | Score | Winner | Closing line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2022-11-03 | 2022 Wk 9 | PHI 29 @ HOU 17 | PHI | PHI -14 |
| 2018-12-23 | 2018 Wk 16 | HOU 30 @ PHI 32 | PHI | PHI -1 |
| 2014-11-02 | 2014 Wk 9 | PHI 31 @ HOU 21 | PHI | PHI -1.5 |
| 2010-12-02 | 2010 Wk 13 | HOU 24 @ PHI 34 | PHI | PHI -8.5 |
| 2006-09-10 | 2006 Wk 1 | PHI 24 @ HOU 10 | PHI | PHI -6 |
Basis: power ratings only (no betting line yet). 10,000 drive-by-drive simulations, calibrated so our percentages match how often teams actually won in a 2020-2026 backtest. Model version 1. How it works
No betting line exists for a game that isn't scheduled, so this uses our own power ratings (they pick about 65% of winners in the backtest). Flip home and away