HOUPIT
Houston Texans @ Pittsburgh Steelers
Any-day matchup, Steelers at home · power ratings as of
Our pick
PITPittsburgh Steelers
50% to win
A probability, not a promise: a 50% pick loses about 5 times in 10.
Advantages Why the Steelers can win
- Texans are missing regulars: S Reed Blankenship (out), S Jalen Pitre (out).
- Steelers running game (8th in EPA) faces the Texans defense that ranks 23rd against it.
- Home field: Steelers play at home, worth roughly 1 to 2 points in recent seasons.
- Point differential per game: Steelers rank 11th (+2.1), Texans 20th (-0.7).
- Simulation: Steelers win 5,030 of 10,000 simulated games.
Disadvantages Why the Steelers may not
- Upset odds: Texans win 4,970 of 10,000 simulations (50%). A 50% pick still loses about 5 times in 10.
- Season-long ratings: over the season, betting lines have rated Texans about 1.4 points stronger.
- Range of outcomes: in the worst 10% of simulations, Steelers lose by 16 or more.
- Explosive plays (20+ yards) per game: Texans rank 4th (4.0), Steelers 13th (3.7).
- Pass rush, sacks per dropback: Texans rank 5th (7.9%), Steelers 14th (7.0%).
The line and our numbers
| Market | AZMango | |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | No line yet | PIT -0.4 |
| Total points | n/a | 42.4 |
| Win chance | HOU n/a · PIT n/a | HOU 50% · PIT 50% |
| Fair moneyline | HOU +101 · PIT -101 |
No betting line for this pairing. Odds change all the time, so check a sportsbook before acting on any number here.
10,000 simulated games
- Typical score: PIT 21, HOU 20.
- 80% of simulations land between HOU by 16 and PIT by 17.
Side by side
| HOU | PIT | |
|---|---|---|
| 2-5 | Record | 5-2 |
| 23.6 15 | Points per game | 21.9 22 |
| 24.3 19 | Points allowed | 19.7 5 |
| +0.02 12 | Offense EPA/play | -0.06 27 |
| +0.03 18 | Defense EPA/play allowed | -0.03 10 |
| +0.4 11 | Turnover margin/game | +0.6 5 |
| 7.9% 5 | Sacks per dropback | 7.0% 14 |
Small numbers are league ranks (1 = best). EPA (expected points added) measures how much each play changes a team's expected score.
Last 5 meetings
| Date | Game | Score | Winner | Closing line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-01-12 | 2025 Wild Card | HOU 30 @ PIT 6 | HOU | HOU -3 |
| 2023-10-01 | 2023 Wk 4 | PIT 6 @ HOU 30 | HOU | PIT -3 |
| 2020-09-27 | 2020 Wk 3 | HOU 21 @ PIT 28 | PIT | PIT -4 |
| 2017-12-25 | 2017 Wk 16 | PIT 34 @ HOU 6 | PIT | PIT -8 |
| 2014-10-20 | 2014 Wk 7 | HOU 23 @ PIT 30 | PIT | PIT -3 |
Basis: power ratings only (no betting line yet). 10,000 drive-by-drive simulations, calibrated so our percentages match how often teams actually won in a 2020-2026 backtest. Model version 1. How it works
No betting line exists for a game that isn't scheduled, so this uses our own power ratings (they pick about 65% of winners in the backtest). Flip home and away