HOUWAS
Houston Texans @ Washington Commanders
Any-day matchup, Commanders at home · power ratings as of
Our pick
HOUHouston Texans
66% to win
A probability, not a promise: a 66% pick loses about 3 times in 10.
Advantages Why the Texans can win
- Season-long ratings: over the season, betting lines have rated Texans about 4.0 points stronger.
- Recent form: average margin over the last three games, Texans +6.7, Commanders -7.7.
- Simulation: Texans win 6,600 of 10,000 simulated games.
- Recent scoring margins: worth about 1.7 points to Texans in our ratings.
- Pass rush, sacks per dropback: Texans rank 5th (7.9%), Commanders 23rd (4.8%).
Disadvantages Why the Texans may not
- Texans are missing regulars: S Reed Blankenship (out), S Jalen Pitre (out).
- Upset odds: Commanders win 3,400 of 10,000 simulations (34%). A 66% pick still loses about 3 times in 10.
- Home field: Commanders play at home, worth roughly 1 to 2 points in recent seasons.
- Commanders running game (12th in EPA) faces the Texans defense that ranks 23rd against it.
- Turnover margin per game: Commanders rank 2nd (+1.0), Texans 11th (+0.4).
The line and our numbers
| Market | AZMango | |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | No line yet | HOU -4.5 |
| Total points | n/a | 46.1 |
| Win chance | HOU n/a · WAS n/a | HOU 66% · WAS 34% |
| Fair moneyline | HOU -194 · WAS +194 |
No betting line for this pairing. Odds change all the time, so check a sportsbook before acting on any number here.
10,000 simulated games
- Typical score: WAS 20, HOU 24.
- 80% of simulations land between HOU by 21 and WAS by 11.
Side by side
| HOU | WAS | |
|---|---|---|
| 2-5 | Record | 1-4-1 |
| 23.6 15 | Points per game | 22.0 20 |
| 24.3 19 | Points allowed | 28.7 31 |
| +0.02 12 | Offense EPA/play | -0.01 17 |
| +0.03 18 | Defense EPA/play allowed | +0.08 25 |
| +0.4 11 | Turnover margin/game | +1.0 2 |
| 7.9% 5 | Sacks per dropback | 4.8% 23 |
Small numbers are league ranks (1 = best). EPA (expected points added) measures how much each play changes a team's expected score.
Last 5 meetings
| Date | Game | Score | Winner | Closing line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2022-11-20 | 2022 Wk 11 | WAS 23 @ HOU 10 | WAS | WAS -3 |
| 2018-11-18 | 2018 Wk 11 | HOU 23 @ WAS 21 | HOU | HOU -3 |
| 2014-09-07 | 2014 Wk 1 | WAS 6 @ HOU 17 | HOU | HOU -3 |
| 2010-09-19 | 2010 Wk 2 | HOU 30 @ WAS 27 | HOU | HOU -2.5 |
| 2006-09-24 | 2006 Wk 3 | WAS 31 @ HOU 15 | WAS | WAS -3.5 |
Basis: power ratings only (no betting line yet). 10,000 drive-by-drive simulations, calibrated so our percentages match how often teams actually won in a 2020-2026 backtest. Model version 1. How it works
No betting line exists for a game that isn't scheduled, so this uses our own power ratings (they pick about 65% of winners in the backtest). Flip home and away