INDATL
Indianapolis Colts @ Atlanta Falcons
Any-day matchup, Falcons at home · power ratings as of
Our pick
ATLAtlanta Falcons
58% to win
A probability, not a promise: a 58% pick loses about 4 times in 10.
Advantages Why the Falcons can win
- Falcons running game (10th in EPA) faces the Colts defense that ranks 27th against it.
- Simulation: Falcons win 5,810 of 10,000 simulated games.
- Recent form: average margin over the last three games, Falcons -2.0, Colts -8.0.
- Home field: Falcons play at home, worth roughly 1 to 2 points in recent seasons.
- Recent scoring margins: worth about 1.1 points to Falcons in our ratings.
Disadvantages Why the Falcons may not
- Upset odds: Colts win 4,190 of 10,000 simulations (42%). A 58% pick still loses about 4 times in 10.
- Range of outcomes: in the worst 10% of simulations, Falcons lose by 14 or more.
- Season-long ratings: over the season, betting lines have rated Colts about 0.5 points stronger.
- Penalty yards per game: Colts rank 1st (38.7), Falcons 19th (60.7).
- Weak spot: Falcons rank 25th in passing offense, EPA per dropback (-0.07).
The line and our numbers
| Market | AZMango | |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | No line yet | ATL -2.5 |
| Total points | n/a | 48.1 |
| Win chance | IND n/a · ATL n/a | IND 42% · ATL 58% |
| Fair moneyline | IND +138 · ATL -138 |
No betting line for this pairing. Odds change all the time, so check a sportsbook before acting on any number here.
10,000 simulated games
- Typical score: ATL 25, IND 23.
- 80% of simulations land between IND by 14 and ATL by 20.
Side by side
| IND | ATL | |
|---|---|---|
| 2-5 | Record | 3-4 |
| 22.0 20 | Points per game | 24.4 10 |
| 25.7 23 | Points allowed | 24.7 20 |
| -0.06 26 | Offense EPA/play | -0.04 23 |
| +0.03 19 | Defense EPA/play allowed | -0.00 15 |
| -1.3 32 | Turnover margin/game | -0.4 21 |
| 5.8% 20 | Sacks per dropback | 5.6% 22 |
Small numbers are league ranks (1 = best). EPA (expected points added) measures how much each play changes a team's expected score.
Last 5 meetings
| Date | Game | Score | Winner | Closing line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-11-09 | 2025 Wk 10 | ATL 25 @ IND 31 | IND | IND -6.5 |
| 2023-12-24 | 2023 Wk 16 | IND 10 @ ATL 29 | ATL | ATL -3 |
| 2019-09-22 | 2019 Wk 3 | ATL 24 @ IND 27 | IND | IND -1 |
| 2015-11-22 | 2015 Wk 11 | IND 24 @ ATL 21 | IND | ATL -3.5 |
| 2011-11-06 | 2011 Wk 9 | ATL 31 @ IND 7 | ATL | ATL -6.5 |
Basis: power ratings only (no betting line yet). 10,000 drive-by-drive simulations, calibrated so our percentages match how often teams actually won in a 2020-2026 backtest. Model version 1. How it works
No betting line exists for a game that isn't scheduled, so this uses our own power ratings (they pick about 65% of winners in the backtest). Flip home and away