INDCAR
Indianapolis Colts @ Carolina Panthers
Any-day matchup, Panthers at home · power ratings as of
Our pick
CARCarolina Panthers
57% to win
A probability, not a promise: a 57% pick loses about 4 times in 10.
Advantages Why the Panthers can win
- Simulation: Panthers win 5,730 of 10,000 simulated games.
- Turnover margin per game: Panthers rank 16th (+0.0), Colts 32nd (-1.3).
- Home field: Panthers play at home, worth roughly 1 to 2 points in recent seasons.
- Explosive plays (20+ yards) per game: Panthers rank 6th (3.9), Colts 21st (3.1).
- Panthers running game (18th in EPA) faces the Colts defense that ranks 27th against it.
Disadvantages Why the Panthers may not
- Panthers are missing regulars: CB Akayleb Evans (out), G Damien Lewis (out), LB Jaelan Phillips (out).
- Colts running game (5th in EPA) faces the Panthers defense that ranks 31st against it.
- Upset odds: Colts win 4,270 of 10,000 simulations (43%). A 57% pick still loses about 4 times in 10.
- Penalty yards per game: Colts rank 1st (38.7), Panthers 31st (73.7).
- Range of outcomes: in the worst 10% of simulations, Panthers lose by 14 or more.
The line and our numbers
| Market | AZMango | |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | No line yet | CAR -2.2 |
| Total points | n/a | 48.1 |
| Win chance | IND n/a · CAR n/a | IND 43% · CAR 57% |
| Fair moneyline | IND +134 · CAR -134 |
No betting line for this pairing. Odds change all the time, so check a sportsbook before acting on any number here.
10,000 simulated games
- Typical score: CAR 24, IND 23.
- 80% of simulations land between IND by 14 and CAR by 19.
Side by side
| IND | CAR | |
|---|---|---|
| 2-5 | Record | 3-4 |
| 22.0 20 | Points per game | 25.4 9 |
| 25.7 23 | Points allowed | 27.6 27 |
| -0.06 26 | Offense EPA/play | +0.02 13 |
| +0.03 19 | Defense EPA/play allowed | +0.05 23 |
| -1.3 32 | Turnover margin/game | +0.0 16 |
| 5.8% 20 | Sacks per dropback | 4.0% 28 |
Small numbers are league ranks (1 = best). EPA (expected points added) measures how much each play changes a team's expected score.
Last 5 meetings
| Date | Game | Score | Winner | Closing line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023-11-05 | 2023 Wk 9 | IND 27 @ CAR 13 | IND | IND -1.5 |
| 2019-12-22 | 2019 Wk 16 | CAR 6 @ IND 38 | IND | IND -7.5 |
| 2015-11-02 | 2015 Wk 8 | IND 26 @ CAR 29 | CAR | CAR -5 |
| 2011-11-27 | 2011 Wk 12 | CAR 27 @ IND 19 | CAR | CAR -3.5 |
| 2007-10-28 | 2007 Wk 8 | IND 31 @ CAR 7 | IND | IND -7 |
Basis: power ratings only (no betting line yet). 10,000 drive-by-drive simulations, calibrated so our percentages match how often teams actually won in a 2020-2026 backtest. Model version 1. How it works
No betting line exists for a game that isn't scheduled, so this uses our own power ratings (they pick about 65% of winners in the backtest). Flip home and away