INDCHI
Indianapolis Colts @ Chicago Bears
Any-day matchup, Bears at home · power ratings as of
Our pick
CHIChicago Bears
68% to win
A probability, not a promise: a 68% pick loses about 3 times in 10.
Advantages Why the Bears can win
- Point differential per game: Bears rank 7th (+5.3), Colts 25th (-3.7).
- Simulation: Bears win 6,790 of 10,000 simulated games.
- Recent scoring margins: worth about 2.0 points to Bears in our ratings.
- Season-long ratings: over the season, betting lines have rated Bears about 1.4 points stronger.
- Home field: Bears play at home, worth roughly 1 to 2 points in recent seasons.
Disadvantages Why the Bears may not
- Colts running game (5th in EPA) faces the Bears defense that ranks 19th against it.
- Upset odds: Colts win 3,210 of 10,000 simulations (32%). A 68% pick still loses about 3 times in 10.
- Range of outcomes: in the worst 10% of simulations, Bears lose by 11 or more.
- Penalty yards per game: Colts rank 1st (38.7), Bears 14th (58.7).
- Weak spot: Bears rank 26th in field goal percentage (73.3%).
The line and our numbers
| Market | AZMango | |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | No line yet | CHI -5.6 |
| Total points | n/a | 49 |
| Win chance | IND n/a · CHI n/a | IND 32% · CHI 68% |
| Fair moneyline | IND +211 · CHI -211 |
No betting line for this pairing. Odds change all the time, so check a sportsbook before acting on any number here.
10,000 simulated games
- Typical score: CHI 27, IND 21.
- 80% of simulations land between IND by 11 and CHI by 23.
Side by side
| IND | CHI | |
|---|---|---|
| 2-5 | Record | 5-2 |
| 22.0 20 | Points per game | 25.7 7 |
| 25.7 23 | Points allowed | 20.4 9 |
| -0.06 26 | Offense EPA/play | +0.04 11 |
| +0.03 19 | Defense EPA/play allowed | +0.01 17 |
| -1.3 32 | Turnover margin/game | -0.1 18 |
| 5.8% 20 | Sacks per dropback | 8.9% 3 |
Small numbers are league ranks (1 = best). EPA (expected points added) measures how much each play changes a team's expected score.
Last 5 meetings
| Date | Game | Score | Winner | Closing line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-09-22 | 2024 Wk 3 | CHI 16 @ IND 21 | IND | IND -1.5 |
| 2020-10-04 | 2020 Wk 4 | IND 19 @ CHI 11 | IND | IND -3.5 |
| 2016-10-09 | 2016 Wk 5 | CHI 23 @ IND 29 | IND | IND -4 |
| 2012-09-09 | 2012 Wk 1 | IND 21 @ CHI 41 | CHI | CHI -10 |
| 2008-09-07 | 2008 Wk 1 | CHI 29 @ IND 13 | CHI | IND -10 |
Basis: power ratings only (no betting line yet). 10,000 drive-by-drive simulations, calibrated so our percentages match how often teams actually won in a 2020-2026 backtest. Model version 1. How it works
No betting line exists for a game that isn't scheduled, so this uses our own power ratings (they pick about 65% of winners in the backtest). Flip home and away