INDCLE
Indianapolis Colts @ Cleveland Browns
Any-day matchup, Browns at home · power ratings as of
Our pick
INDIndianapolis Colts
51% to win
A probability, not a promise: a 51% pick loses about 5 times in 10.
Advantages Why the Colts can win
- Season-long ratings: over the season, betting lines have rated Colts about 2.0 points stronger.
- Simulation: Colts win 5,060 of 10,000 simulated games.
- Colts running game (5th in EPA) faces the Browns defense that ranks 14th against it.
- Pass protection, sacks allowed per dropback: Colts rank 21st (7.3%), Browns 32nd (10.6%).
- Strength: Colts rank 1st in penalty yards per game (38.7).
Disadvantages Why the Colts may not
- Upset odds: Browns win 4,940 of 10,000 simulations (49%). A 51% pick still loses about 5 times in 10.
- Recent form: average margin over the last three games, Browns +0.3, Colts -8.0.
- Turnover margin per game: Browns rank 16th (+0.0), Colts 32nd (-1.3).
- Home field: Browns play at home, worth roughly 1 to 2 points in recent seasons.
- Pass rush, sacks per dropback: Browns rank 6th (7.8%), Colts 20th (5.8%).
The line and our numbers
| Market | AZMango | |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | No line yet | CLE -0.1 |
| Total points | n/a | 43.7 |
| Win chance | IND n/a · CLE n/a | IND 51% · CLE 49% |
| Fair moneyline | IND -102 · CLE +102 |
No betting line for this pairing. Odds change all the time, so check a sportsbook before acting on any number here.
10,000 simulated games
- Typical score: CLE 21, IND 21.
- 80% of simulations land between IND by 17 and CLE by 17.
Side by side
| IND | CLE | |
|---|---|---|
| 2-5 | Record | 5-2 |
| 22.0 20 | Points per game | 19.0 28 |
| 25.7 23 | Points allowed | 20.9 12 |
| -0.06 26 | Offense EPA/play | -0.03 20 |
| +0.03 19 | Defense EPA/play allowed | -0.03 13 |
| -1.3 32 | Turnover margin/game | +0.0 16 |
| 5.8% 20 | Sacks per dropback | 7.8% 6 |
Small numbers are league ranks (1 = best). EPA (expected points added) measures how much each play changes a team's expected score.
Last 5 meetings
| Date | Game | Score | Winner | Closing line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023-10-22 | 2023 Wk 7 | CLE 39 @ IND 38 | CLE | CLE -3.5 |
| 2020-10-11 | 2020 Wk 5 | IND 23 @ CLE 32 | CLE | CLE -1 |
| 2017-09-24 | 2017 Wk 3 | CLE 28 @ IND 31 | IND | IND -1 |
| 2014-12-07 | 2014 Wk 14 | IND 25 @ CLE 24 | IND | IND -3 |
| 2012-10-21 | 2012 Wk 7 | CLE 13 @ IND 17 | IND | IND -1 |
Basis: power ratings only (no betting line yet). 10,000 drive-by-drive simulations, calibrated so our percentages match how often teams actually won in a 2020-2026 backtest. Model version 1. How it works
No betting line exists for a game that isn't scheduled, so this uses our own power ratings (they pick about 65% of winners in the backtest). Flip home and away