INDDAL
Indianapolis Colts @ Dallas Cowboys
Any-day matchup, Cowboys at home · power ratings as of
Our pick
DALDallas Cowboys
66% to win
A probability, not a promise: a 66% pick loses about 3 times in 10.
Advantages Why the Cowboys can win
- Season-long ratings: over the season, betting lines have rated Cowboys about 2.1 points stronger.
- Simulation: Cowboys win 6,650 of 10,000 simulated games.
- Cowboys running game (6th in EPA) faces the Colts defense that ranks 27th against it.
- Recent form: average margin over the last three games, Cowboys -0.3, Colts -8.0.
- Point differential per game: Cowboys rank 14th (+1.3), Colts 25th (-3.7).
Disadvantages Why the Cowboys may not
- Colts running game (5th in EPA) faces the Cowboys defense that ranks 25th against it.
- Upset odds: Colts win 3,350 of 10,000 simulations (34%). A 66% pick still loses about 3 times in 10.
- Range of outcomes: in the worst 10% of simulations, Cowboys lose by 11 or more.
- Penalty yards per game: Colts rank 1st (38.7), Cowboys 24th (67.0).
- Weak spot: Cowboys rank 32nd in defense, EPA per play allowed (+0.14).
The line and our numbers
| Market | AZMango | |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | No line yet | DAL -5 |
| Total points | n/a | 51.5 |
| Win chance | IND n/a · DAL n/a | IND 34% · DAL 66% |
| Fair moneyline | IND +198 · DAL -198 |
No betting line for this pairing. Odds change all the time, so check a sportsbook before acting on any number here.
10,000 simulated games
- Typical score: DAL 28, IND 23.
- 80% of simulations land between IND by 11 and DAL by 22.
Side by side
| IND | DAL | |
|---|---|---|
| 2-5 | Record | 3-4 |
| 22.0 20 | Points per game | 27.0 5 |
| 25.7 23 | Points allowed | 25.7 23 |
| -0.06 26 | Offense EPA/play | +0.13 5 |
| +0.03 19 | Defense EPA/play allowed | +0.14 32 |
| -1.3 32 | Turnover margin/game | -0.4 21 |
| 5.8% 20 | Sacks per dropback | 4.4% 25 |
Small numbers are league ranks (1 = best). EPA (expected points added) measures how much each play changes a team's expected score.
Last 5 meetings
| Date | Game | Score | Winner | Closing line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2022-12-04 | 2022 Wk 13 | IND 19 @ DAL 54 | DAL | DAL -11 |
| 2018-12-16 | 2018 Wk 15 | DAL 0 @ IND 23 | IND | IND -3 |
| 2014-12-21 | 2014 Wk 16 | IND 7 @ DAL 42 | DAL | DAL -3.5 |
| 2010-12-05 | 2010 Wk 13 | DAL 38 @ IND 35 | DAL | IND -5.5 |
| 2006-11-19 | 2006 Wk 11 | IND 14 @ DAL 21 | DAL | IND -1 |
Basis: power ratings only (no betting line yet). 10,000 drive-by-drive simulations, calibrated so our percentages match how often teams actually won in a 2020-2026 backtest. Model version 1. How it works
No betting line exists for a game that isn't scheduled, so this uses our own power ratings (they pick about 65% of winners in the backtest). Flip home and away