INDHOU
Indianapolis Colts @ Houston Texans
Any-day matchup, Texans at home · power ratings as of
Our pick
HOUHouston Texans
68% to win
A probability, not a promise: a 68% pick loses about 3 times in 10.
Advantages Why the Texans can win
- Recent form: average margin over the last three games, Texans +6.7, Colts -8.0.
- Season-long ratings: over the season, betting lines have rated Texans about 2.3 points stronger.
- Simulation: Texans win 6,770 of 10,000 simulated games.
- Turnover margin per game: Texans rank 11th (+0.4), Colts 32nd (-1.3).
- Home field: Texans play at home, worth roughly 1 to 2 points in recent seasons.
Disadvantages Why the Texans may not
- Texans are missing regulars: S Reed Blankenship (out), S Jalen Pitre (out).
- Colts running game (5th in EPA) faces the Texans defense that ranks 23rd against it.
- Upset odds: Colts win 3,230 of 10,000 simulations (32%). A 68% pick still loses about 3 times in 10.
- Penalty yards per game: Colts rank 1st (38.7), Texans 28th (72.6).
- Range of outcomes: in the worst 10% of simulations, Texans lose by 10 or more.
The line and our numbers
| Market | AZMango | |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | No line yet | HOU -5.4 |
| Total points | n/a | 45.8 |
| Win chance | IND n/a · HOU n/a | IND 32% · HOU 68% |
| Fair moneyline | IND +210 · HOU -210 |
No betting line for this pairing. Odds change all the time, so check a sportsbook before acting on any number here.
10,000 simulated games
- Typical score: HOU 25, IND 20.
- 80% of simulations land between IND by 10 and HOU by 23.
Side by side
| IND | HOU | |
|---|---|---|
| 2-5 | Record | 2-5 |
| 22.0 20 | Points per game | 23.6 15 |
| 25.7 23 | Points allowed | 24.3 19 |
| -0.06 26 | Offense EPA/play | +0.02 12 |
| +0.03 19 | Defense EPA/play allowed | +0.03 18 |
| -1.3 32 | Turnover margin/game | +0.4 11 |
| 5.8% 20 | Sacks per dropback | 7.9% 5 |
Small numbers are league ranks (1 = best). EPA (expected points added) measures how much each play changes a team's expected score.
Last 5 meetings
| Date | Game | Score | Winner | Closing line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-27 | 2026 Wk 3 | HOU 17 @ IND 19 | IND | HOU -1.5 |
| 2026-01-04 | 2025 Wk 18 | IND 30 @ HOU 38 | HOU | HOU -9.5 |
| 2025-11-30 | 2025 Wk 13 | HOU 20 @ IND 16 | HOU | IND -3 |
| 2024-10-27 | 2024 Wk 8 | IND 20 @ HOU 23 | HOU | HOU -5 |
| 2024-09-08 | 2024 Wk 1 | HOU 29 @ IND 27 | HOU | HOU -3 |
Basis: power ratings only (no betting line yet). 10,000 drive-by-drive simulations, calibrated so our percentages match how often teams actually won in a 2020-2026 backtest. Model version 1. How it works
No betting line exists for a game that isn't scheduled, so this uses our own power ratings (they pick about 65% of winners in the backtest). Flip home and away