INDKC
Indianapolis Colts @ Kansas City Chiefs
Any-day matchup, Chiefs at home · power ratings as of
Our pick
KCKansas City Chiefs
72% to win
A probability, not a promise: a 72% pick loses about 3 times in 10.
Advantages Why the Chiefs can win
- Season-long ratings: over the season, betting lines have rated Chiefs about 3.1 points stronger.
- Point differential per game: Chiefs rank 5th (+6.7), Colts 25th (-3.7).
- Turnover margin per game: Chiefs rank 3rd (+0.8), Colts 32nd (-1.3).
- Simulation: Chiefs win 7,240 of 10,000 simulated games.
- Chiefs running game (2nd in EPA) faces the Colts defense that ranks 27th against it.
Disadvantages Why the Chiefs may not
- Upset odds: Colts win 2,760 of 10,000 simulations (28%). A 72% pick still loses about 3 times in 10.
- Range of outcomes: in the worst 10% of simulations, Chiefs lose by 9 or more.
- Pass rush, sacks per dropback: Colts rank 20th (5.8%), Chiefs 31st (3.2%).
- Colts running game (5th in EPA) faces the Chiefs defense that ranks 11th against it.
- Weak spot: Chiefs rank 31st in pass rush, sacks per dropback (3.2%).
The line and our numbers
| Market | AZMango | |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | No line yet | KC -7.2 |
| Total points | n/a | 46.5 |
| Win chance | IND n/a · KC n/a | IND 28% · KC 72% |
| Fair moneyline | IND +263 · KC -263 |
No betting line for this pairing. Odds change all the time, so check a sportsbook before acting on any number here.
10,000 simulated games
- Typical score: KC 27, IND 20.
- 80% of simulations land between IND by 9 and KC by 24.
Side by side
| IND | KC | |
|---|---|---|
| 2-5 | Record | 5-1 |
| 22.0 20 | Points per game | 23.8 14 |
| 25.7 23 | Points allowed | 17.2 2 |
| -0.06 26 | Offense EPA/play | +0.10 7 |
| +0.03 19 | Defense EPA/play allowed | -0.05 6 |
| -1.3 32 | Turnover margin/game | +0.8 3 |
| 5.8% 20 | Sacks per dropback | 3.2% 31 |
Small numbers are league ranks (1 = best). EPA (expected points added) measures how much each play changes a team's expected score.
Last 5 meetings
| Date | Game | Score | Winner | Closing line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-20 | 2026 Wk 2 | IND 30 @ KC 33 | KC | KC -6 |
| 2025-11-23 | 2025 Wk 12 | IND 20 @ KC 23 | KC | KC -3.5 |
| 2022-09-25 | 2022 Wk 3 | KC 17 @ IND 20 | IND | KC -4.5 |
| 2019-10-06 | 2019 Wk 5 | IND 19 @ KC 13 | IND | KC -10.5 |
| 2019-01-12 | 2018 Divisional | IND 13 @ KC 31 | KC | KC -4 |
Basis: power ratings only (no betting line yet). 10,000 drive-by-drive simulations, calibrated so our percentages match how often teams actually won in a 2020-2026 backtest. Model version 1. How it works
No betting line exists for a game that isn't scheduled, so this uses our own power ratings (they pick about 65% of winners in the backtest). Flip home and away