INDMIA
Indianapolis Colts @ Miami Dolphins
Any-day matchup, Dolphins at home · power ratings as of
Our pick
INDIndianapolis Colts
61% to win
A probability, not a promise: a 61% pick loses about 4 times in 10.
Advantages Why the Colts can win
- Season-long ratings: over the season, betting lines have rated Colts about 3.3 points stronger.
- Simulation: Colts win 6,060 of 10,000 simulated games.
- Recent scoring margins: worth about 0.9 points to Colts in our ratings.
- Pass rush, sacks per dropback: Colts rank 20th (5.8%), Dolphins 30th (3.3%).
- History: Colts won 4 of the last 5 meetings (old results say little about this year's teams).
Disadvantages Why the Colts may not
- Dolphins running game (7th in EPA) faces the Colts defense that ranks 27th against it.
- Upset odds: Dolphins win 3,940 of 10,000 simulations (39%). A 61% pick still loses about 4 times in 10.
- Home field: Dolphins play at home, worth roughly 1 to 2 points in recent seasons.
- Range of outcomes: in the worst 10% of simulations, Colts lose by 14 or more.
- Weak spot: Colts rank 32nd in turnover margin per game (-1.3).
The line and our numbers
| Market | AZMango | |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | No line yet | IND -2.7 |
| Total points | n/a | 45.6 |
| Win chance | IND n/a · MIA n/a | IND 61% · MIA 39% |
| Fair moneyline | IND -154 · MIA +154 |
No betting line for this pairing. Odds change all the time, so check a sportsbook before acting on any number here.
10,000 simulated games
- Typical score: MIA 21, IND 24.
- 80% of simulations land between IND by 20 and MIA by 14.
Side by side
| IND | MIA | |
|---|---|---|
| 2-5 | Record | 1-5 |
| 22.0 20 | Points per game | 16.3 30 |
| 25.7 23 | Points allowed | 26.2 25 |
| -0.06 26 | Offense EPA/play | -0.04 21 |
| +0.03 19 | Defense EPA/play allowed | +0.12 30 |
| -1.3 32 | Turnover margin/game | -0.5 26 |
| 5.8% 20 | Sacks per dropback | 3.3% 30 |
Small numbers are league ranks (1 = best). EPA (expected points added) measures how much each play changes a team's expected score.
Last 5 meetings
| Date | Game | Score | Winner | Closing line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-09-07 | 2025 Wk 1 | MIA 8 @ IND 33 | IND | IND -1.5 |
| 2024-10-20 | 2024 Wk 7 | MIA 10 @ IND 16 | IND | IND -3 |
| 2021-10-03 | 2021 Wk 4 | IND 27 @ MIA 17 | IND | MIA -2.5 |
| 2019-11-10 | 2019 Wk 10 | MIA 16 @ IND 12 | MIA | IND -11 |
| 2018-11-25 | 2018 Wk 12 | MIA 24 @ IND 27 | IND | IND -9 |
Basis: power ratings only (no betting line yet). 10,000 drive-by-drive simulations, calibrated so our percentages match how often teams actually won in a 2020-2026 backtest. Model version 1. How it works
No betting line exists for a game that isn't scheduled, so this uses our own power ratings (they pick about 65% of winners in the backtest). Flip home and away