INDNYJ
Indianapolis Colts @ New York Jets
Any-day matchup, Jets at home · power ratings as of
Our pick
NYJNew York Jets
51% to win
A probability, not a promise: a 51% pick loses about 5 times in 10.
Advantages Why the Jets can win
- Turnover margin per game: Jets rank 11th (+0.4), Colts 32nd (-1.3).
- Recent form: average margin over the last three games, Jets -1.7, Colts -8.0.
- Home field: Jets play at home, worth roughly 1 to 2 points in recent seasons.
- Simulation: Jets win 5,070 of 10,000 simulated games.
- Pass rush, sacks per dropback: Jets rank 4th (8.2%), Colts 20th (5.8%).
Disadvantages Why the Jets may not
- Upset odds: Colts win 4,930 of 10,000 simulations (49%). A 51% pick still loses about 5 times in 10.
- Season-long ratings: over the season, betting lines have rated Colts about 1.7 points stronger.
- Penalty yards per game: Colts rank 1st (38.7), Jets 26th (69.0).
- Range of outcomes: in the worst 10% of simulations, Jets lose by 17 or more.
- History: Colts won 4 of the last 5 meetings (old results say little about this year's teams).
The line and our numbers
| Market | AZMango | |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | No line yet | Pick'em |
| Total points | n/a | 45.3 |
| Win chance | IND n/a · NYJ n/a | IND 49% · NYJ 51% |
| Fair moneyline | IND +103 · NYJ -103 |
No betting line for this pairing. Odds change all the time, so check a sportsbook before acting on any number here.
10,000 simulated games
- Typical score: NYJ 23, IND 23.
- 80% of simulations land between IND by 17 and NYJ by 17.
Side by side
| IND | NYJ | |
|---|---|---|
| 2-5 | Record | 2-5 |
| 22.0 20 | Points per game | 19.6 27 |
| 25.7 23 | Points allowed | 21.4 13 |
| -0.06 26 | Offense EPA/play | +0.00 15 |
| +0.03 19 | Defense EPA/play allowed | -0.01 14 |
| -1.3 32 | Turnover margin/game | +0.4 11 |
| 5.8% 20 | Sacks per dropback | 8.2% 4 |
Small numbers are league ranks (1 = best). EPA (expected points added) measures how much each play changes a team's expected score.
Last 5 meetings
| Date | Game | Score | Winner | Closing line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-11-17 | 2024 Wk 11 | IND 28 @ NYJ 27 | IND | NYJ -4 |
| 2021-11-04 | 2021 Wk 9 | NYJ 30 @ IND 45 | IND | IND -10.5 |
| 2020-09-27 | 2020 Wk 3 | NYJ 7 @ IND 36 | IND | IND -12.5 |
| 2018-10-14 | 2018 Wk 6 | IND 34 @ NYJ 42 | NYJ | NYJ -2.5 |
| 2016-12-05 | 2016 Wk 13 | IND 41 @ NYJ 10 | IND | NYJ -1 |
Basis: power ratings only (no betting line yet). 10,000 drive-by-drive simulations, calibrated so our percentages match how often teams actually won in a 2020-2026 backtest. Model version 1. How it works
No betting line exists for a game that isn't scheduled, so this uses our own power ratings (they pick about 65% of winners in the backtest). Flip home and away