INDPHI
Indianapolis Colts @ Philadelphia Eagles
Any-day matchup, Eagles at home · power ratings as of
Our pick
PHIPhiladelphia Eagles
53% to win
A probability, not a promise: a 53% pick loses about 5 times in 10.
Advantages Why the Eagles can win
- Home field: Eagles play at home, worth roughly 1 to 2 points in recent seasons.
- Simulation: Eagles win 5,280 of 10,000 simulated games.
- Turnover margin per game: Eagles rank 21st (-0.4), Colts 32nd (-1.3).
- History: Eagles won 4 of the last 5 meetings (old results say little about this year's teams).
- Strength: Eagles rank 1st in field goal percentage (100.0%).
Disadvantages Why the Eagles may not
- Colts running game (5th in EPA) faces the Eagles defense that ranks 28th against it.
- Upset odds: Colts win 4,720 of 10,000 simulations (47%). A 53% pick still loses about 5 times in 10.
- Recent scoring margins: worth about 0.8 points to Colts in our ratings.
- Pass rush, sacks per dropback: Colts rank 20th (5.8%), Eagles 32nd (3.2%).
- Range of outcomes: in the worst 10% of simulations, Eagles lose by 16 or more.
The line and our numbers
| Market | AZMango | |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | No line yet | PHI -0.9 |
| Total points | n/a | 44.4 |
| Win chance | IND n/a · PHI n/a | IND 47% · PHI 53% |
| Fair moneyline | IND +112 · PHI -112 |
No betting line for this pairing. Odds change all the time, so check a sportsbook before acting on any number here.
10,000 simulated games
- Typical score: PHI 23, IND 21.
- 80% of simulations land between IND by 16 and PHI by 18.
Side by side
| IND | PHI | |
|---|---|---|
| 2-5 | Record | 2-5 |
| 22.0 20 | Points per game | 18.1 29 |
| 25.7 23 | Points allowed | 25.0 21 |
| -0.06 26 | Offense EPA/play | -0.11 30 |
| +0.03 19 | Defense EPA/play allowed | +0.09 27 |
| -1.3 32 | Turnover margin/game | -0.4 21 |
| 5.8% 20 | Sacks per dropback | 3.2% 32 |
Small numbers are league ranks (1 = best). EPA (expected points added) measures how much each play changes a team's expected score.
Last 5 meetings
| Date | Game | Score | Winner | Closing line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2022-11-20 | 2022 Wk 11 | PHI 17 @ IND 16 | PHI | PHI -6.5 |
| 2018-09-23 | 2018 Wk 3 | IND 16 @ PHI 20 | PHI | PHI -6.5 |
| 2014-09-15 | 2014 Wk 2 | PHI 30 @ IND 27 | PHI | IND -3 |
| 2010-11-07 | 2010 Wk 9 | IND 24 @ PHI 26 | PHI | PHI -3.5 |
| 2006-11-26 | 2006 Wk 12 | PHI 21 @ IND 45 | IND | IND -10 |
Basis: power ratings only (no betting line yet). 10,000 drive-by-drive simulations, calibrated so our percentages match how often teams actually won in a 2020-2026 backtest. Model version 1. How it works
No betting line exists for a game that isn't scheduled, so this uses our own power ratings (they pick about 65% of winners in the backtest). Flip home and away