INDTB
Indianapolis Colts @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Any-day matchup, Buccaneers at home · power ratings as of
Our pick
TBTampa Bay Buccaneers
59% to win
A probability, not a promise: a 59% pick loses about 4 times in 10.
Advantages Why the Buccaneers can win
- Recent form: average margin over the last three games, Buccaneers +10.3, Colts -8.0.
- Buccaneers running game (4th in EPA) faces the Colts defense that ranks 27th against it.
- Point differential per game: Buccaneers rank 12th (+1.6), Colts 25th (-3.7).
- Simulation: Buccaneers win 5,890 of 10,000 simulated games.
- Turnover margin per game: Buccaneers rank 14th (+0.1), Colts 32nd (-1.3).
Disadvantages Why the Buccaneers may not
- Upset odds: Colts win 4,110 of 10,000 simulations (41%). A 59% pick still loses about 4 times in 10.
- Range of outcomes: in the worst 10% of simulations, Buccaneers lose by 14 or more.
- Weak spot: Buccaneers rank 31st in passing offense, EPA per dropback (-0.20).
- Season-long ratings: over the season, betting lines have rated Colts about 0.5 points stronger.
- Weak spot: Buccaneers rank 29th in pass protection, sacks allowed per dropback (9.7%).
The line and our numbers
| Market | AZMango | |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | No line yet | TB -2.9 |
| Total points | n/a | 46.5 |
| Win chance | IND n/a · TB n/a | IND 41% · TB 59% |
| Fair moneyline | IND +143 · TB -143 |
No betting line for this pairing. Odds change all the time, so check a sportsbook before acting on any number here.
10,000 simulated games
- Typical score: TB 24, IND 21.
- 80% of simulations land between IND by 14 and TB by 20.
Side by side
| IND | TB | |
|---|---|---|
| 2-5 | Record | 2-5 |
| 22.0 20 | Points per game | 23.1 17 |
| 25.7 23 | Points allowed | 21.6 14 |
| -0.06 26 | Offense EPA/play | -0.08 28 |
| +0.03 19 | Defense EPA/play allowed | -0.12 3 |
| -1.3 32 | Turnover margin/game | +0.1 14 |
| 5.8% 20 | Sacks per dropback | 6.1% 18 |
Small numbers are league ranks (1 = best). EPA (expected points added) measures how much each play changes a team's expected score.
Last 5 meetings
| Date | Game | Score | Winner | Closing line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023-11-26 | 2023 Wk 12 | TB 20 @ IND 27 | IND | IND -2.5 |
| 2021-11-28 | 2021 Wk 12 | TB 38 @ IND 31 | TB | TB -3 |
| 2019-12-08 | 2019 Wk 14 | IND 35 @ TB 38 | TB | TB -3 |
| 2015-11-29 | 2015 Wk 12 | TB 12 @ IND 25 | IND | IND -3 |
| 2011-10-03 | 2011 Wk 4 | IND 17 @ TB 24 | TB | TB -10 |
Basis: power ratings only (no betting line yet). 10,000 drive-by-drive simulations, calibrated so our percentages match how often teams actually won in a 2020-2026 backtest. Model version 1. How it works
No betting line exists for a game that isn't scheduled, so this uses our own power ratings (they pick about 65% of winners in the backtest). Flip home and away