INDWAS
Indianapolis Colts @ Washington Commanders
Any-day matchup, Commanders at home · power ratings as of
Our pick
INDIndianapolis Colts
53% to win
A probability, not a promise: a 53% pick loses about 5 times in 10.
Advantages Why the Colts can win
- Colts running game (5th in EPA) faces the Commanders defense that ranks 32nd against it.
- Season-long ratings: over the season, betting lines have rated Colts about 1.6 points stronger.
- Simulation: Colts win 5,270 of 10,000 simulated games.
- Recent scoring margins: worth about 0.6 points to Colts in our ratings.
- History: Colts won 4 of the last 5 meetings (old results say little about this year's teams).
Disadvantages Why the Colts may not
- Turnover margin per game: Commanders rank 2nd (+1.0), Colts 32nd (-1.3).
- Upset odds: Commanders win 4,730 of 10,000 simulations (47%). A 53% pick still loses about 5 times in 10.
- Commanders running game (12th in EPA) faces the Colts defense that ranks 27th against it.
- Home field: Commanders play at home, worth roughly 1 to 2 points in recent seasons.
- Range of outcomes: in the worst 10% of simulations, Colts lose by 17 or more.
The line and our numbers
| Market | AZMango | |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | No line yet | IND -0.7 |
| Total points | n/a | 48.3 |
| Win chance | IND n/a · WAS n/a | IND 53% · WAS 47% |
| Fair moneyline | IND -111 · WAS +111 |
No betting line for this pairing. Odds change all the time, so check a sportsbook before acting on any number here.
10,000 simulated games
- Typical score: WAS 24, IND 24.
- 80% of simulations land between IND by 17 and WAS by 17.
Side by side
| IND | WAS | |
|---|---|---|
| 2-5 | Record | 1-4-1 |
| 22.0 20 | Points per game | 22.0 20 |
| 25.7 23 | Points allowed | 28.7 31 |
| -0.06 26 | Offense EPA/play | -0.01 17 |
| +0.03 19 | Defense EPA/play allowed | +0.08 25 |
| -1.3 32 | Turnover margin/game | +1.0 2 |
| 5.8% 20 | Sacks per dropback | 4.8% 23 |
Small numbers are league ranks (1 = best). EPA (expected points added) measures how much each play changes a team's expected score.
Last 5 meetings
| Date | Game | Score | Winner | Closing line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-04 | 2026 Wk 4 | IND 30 @ WAS 13 | IND | IND -4.5 |
| 2022-10-30 | 2022 Wk 8 | WAS 17 @ IND 16 | WAS | IND -3 |
| 2018-09-16 | 2018 Wk 2 | IND 21 @ WAS 9 | IND | WAS -6 |
| 2014-11-30 | 2014 Wk 13 | WAS 27 @ IND 49 | IND | IND -7.5 |
| 2010-10-17 | 2010 Wk 6 | IND 27 @ WAS 24 | IND | IND -3 |
Basis: power ratings only (no betting line yet). 10,000 drive-by-drive simulations, calibrated so our percentages match how often teams actually won in a 2020-2026 backtest. Model version 1. How it works
No betting line exists for a game that isn't scheduled, so this uses our own power ratings (they pick about 65% of winners in the backtest). Flip home and away