JAXIND
Jacksonville Jaguars @ Indianapolis Colts
Any-day matchup, Colts at home · power ratings as of
Our pick
JAXJacksonville Jaguars
66% to win
A probability, not a promise: a 66% pick loses about 3 times in 10.
Advantages Why the Jaguars can win
- Point differential per game: Jaguars rank 2nd (+8.3), Colts 25th (-3.7).
- Season-long ratings: over the season, betting lines have rated Jaguars about 2.8 points stronger.
- Recent scoring margins: worth about 2.5 points to Jaguars in our ratings.
- Turnover margin per game: Jaguars rank 3rd (+0.8), Colts 32nd (-1.3).
- Simulation: Jaguars win 6,620 of 10,000 simulated games.
Disadvantages Why the Jaguars may not
- Upset odds: Colts win 3,380 of 10,000 simulations (34%). A 66% pick still loses about 3 times in 10.
- Home field: Colts play at home, worth roughly 1 to 2 points in recent seasons.
- Penalty yards per game: Colts rank 1st (38.7), Jaguars 25th (68.7).
- Range of outcomes: in the worst 10% of simulations, Jaguars lose by 11 or more.
- Weak spot: Jaguars rank 25th in penalty yards per game (68.7).
The line and our numbers
| Market | AZMango | |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | No line yet | JAX -4.5 |
| Total points | n/a | 47.7 |
| Win chance | JAX n/a · IND n/a | JAX 66% · IND 34% |
| Fair moneyline | JAX -196 · IND +196 |
No betting line for this pairing. Odds change all the time, so check a sportsbook before acting on any number here.
10,000 simulated games
- Typical score: IND 21, JAX 26.
- 80% of simulations land between JAX by 21 and IND by 11.
Side by side
| JAX | IND | |
|---|---|---|
| 4-2 | Record | 2-5 |
| 25.7 8 | Points per game | 22.0 20 |
| 17.3 3 | Points allowed | 25.7 23 |
| +0.15 3 | Offense EPA/play | -0.06 26 |
| -0.03 11 | Defense EPA/play allowed | +0.03 19 |
| +0.8 3 | Turnover margin/game | -1.3 32 |
| 4.5% 24 | Sacks per dropback | 5.8% 20 |
Small numbers are league ranks (1 = best). EPA (expected points added) measures how much each play changes a team's expected score.
Last 5 meetings
| Date | Game | Score | Winner | Closing line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-12-28 | 2025 Wk 17 | JAX 23 @ IND 17 | JAX | JAX -3.5 |
| 2025-12-07 | 2025 Wk 14 | IND 19 @ JAX 36 | JAX | IND -2.5 |
| 2025-01-05 | 2024 Wk 18 | JAX 23 @ IND 26 | IND | IND -3.5 |
| 2024-10-06 | 2024 Wk 5 | IND 34 @ JAX 37 | JAX | JAX -3.5 |
| 2023-10-15 | 2023 Wk 6 | IND 20 @ JAX 37 | JAX | JAX -4 |
Basis: power ratings only (no betting line yet). 10,000 drive-by-drive simulations, calibrated so our percentages match how often teams actually won in a 2020-2026 backtest. Model version 1. How it works
No betting line exists for a game that isn't scheduled, so this uses our own power ratings (they pick about 65% of winners in the backtest). Flip home and away