JAXLA
Jacksonville Jaguars @ Los Angeles Rams
Any-day matchup, Rams at home · power ratings as of
Our pick
LALos Angeles Rams
55% to win
A probability, not a promise: a 55% pick loses about 4 times in 10.
Advantages Why the Rams can win
- Simulation: Rams win 5,510 of 10,000 simulated games.
- Travel: Jaguars cross 3 time zones for this one.
- Home field: Rams play at home, worth roughly 1 to 2 points in recent seasons.
- Season-long ratings: over the season, betting lines have rated Rams about 1.0 points stronger.
- History: Rams won 4 of the last 5 meetings (old results say little about this year's teams).
Disadvantages Why the Rams may not
- Turnover margin per game: Jaguars rank 3rd (+0.8), Rams 29th (-0.7).
- Upset odds: Jaguars win 4,490 of 10,000 simulations (45%). A 55% pick still loses about 4 times in 10.
- Point differential per game: Jaguars rank 2nd (+8.3), Rams 12th (+1.6).
- Jaguars running game (9th in EPA) faces the Rams defense that ranks 22nd against it.
- Recent scoring margins: worth about 1.1 points to Jaguars in our ratings.
The line and our numbers
| Market | AZMango | |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | No line yet | LA -1.7 |
| Total points | n/a | 48.9 |
| Win chance | JAX n/a · LA n/a | JAX 45% · LA 55% |
| Fair moneyline | JAX +123 · LA -123 |
No betting line for this pairing. Odds change all the time, so check a sportsbook before acting on any number here.
10,000 simulated games
- Typical score: LA 24, JAX 23.
- 80% of simulations land between JAX by 14 and LA by 19.
Side by side
| JAX | LA | |
|---|---|---|
| 4-2 | Record | 3-4 |
| 25.7 8 | Points per game | 24.3 11 |
| 17.3 3 | Points allowed | 22.7 16 |
| +0.15 3 | Offense EPA/play | +0.06 10 |
| -0.03 11 | Defense EPA/play allowed | -0.06 5 |
| +0.8 3 | Turnover margin/game | -0.7 29 |
| 4.5% 24 | Sacks per dropback | 4.2% 27 |
Small numbers are league ranks (1 = best). EPA (expected points added) measures how much each play changes a team's expected score.
Last 5 meetings
| Date | Game | Score | Winner | Closing line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-10-19 | 2025 Wk 7 | LA 35 @ JAX 7 | LA | LA -3 |
| 2021-12-05 | 2021 Wk 13 | JAX 7 @ LA 37 | LA | LA -14 |
| 2017-10-15 | 2017 Wk 6 | LA 27 @ JAX 17 | LA | JAX -1 |
| 2013-10-06 | 2013 Wk 5 | JAX 20 @ LA 34 | LA | LA -11 |
| 2009-10-18 | 2009 Wk 6 | LA 20 @ JAX 23 | JAX | JAX -9.5 |
Basis: power ratings only (no betting line yet). 10,000 drive-by-drive simulations, calibrated so our percentages match how often teams actually won in a 2020-2026 backtest. Model version 1. How it works
No betting line exists for a game that isn't scheduled, so this uses our own power ratings (they pick about 65% of winners in the backtest). Flip home and away