JAXMIA
Jacksonville Jaguars @ Miami Dolphins
Any-day matchup, Dolphins at home · power ratings as of
Our pick
JAXJacksonville Jaguars
79% to win
A probability, not a promise: a 79% pick loses about 2 times in 10.
Advantages Why the Jaguars can win
- Season-long ratings: over the season, betting lines have rated Jaguars about 6.0 points stronger.
- Point differential per game: Jaguars rank 2nd (+8.3), Dolphins 31st (-9.8).
- Jaguars passing game (4th in EPA) faces the Dolphins defense that ranks 32nd against it.
- Recent scoring margins: worth about 3.4 points to Jaguars in our ratings.
- Simulation: Jaguars win 7,940 of 10,000 simulated games.
Disadvantages Why the Jaguars may not
- Home field: Dolphins play at home, worth roughly 1 to 2 points in recent seasons.
- Upset odds: Dolphins win 2,060 of 10,000 simulations (21%). A 79% pick still loses about 2 times in 10.
- Range of outcomes: in the worst 10% of simulations, Jaguars lose by 7 or more.
- Penalty yards per game: Dolphins rank 4th (47.7), Jaguars 25th (68.7).
- Weak spot: Jaguars rank 25th in penalty yards per game (68.7).
The line and our numbers
| Market | AZMango | |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | No line yet | JAX -8.8 |
| Total points | n/a | 45.3 |
| Win chance | JAX n/a · MIA n/a | JAX 79% · MIA 21% |
| Fair moneyline | JAX -386 · MIA +386 |
No betting line for this pairing. Odds change all the time, so check a sportsbook before acting on any number here.
10,000 simulated games
- Typical score: MIA 17, JAX 27.
- 80% of simulations land between JAX by 26 and MIA by 7.
Side by side
| JAX | MIA | |
|---|---|---|
| 4-2 | Record | 1-5 |
| 25.7 8 | Points per game | 16.3 30 |
| 17.3 3 | Points allowed | 26.2 25 |
| +0.15 3 | Offense EPA/play | -0.04 21 |
| -0.03 11 | Defense EPA/play allowed | +0.12 30 |
| +0.8 3 | Turnover margin/game | -0.5 26 |
| 4.5% 24 | Sacks per dropback | 3.3% 30 |
Small numbers are league ranks (1 = best). EPA (expected points added) measures how much each play changes a team's expected score.
Last 5 meetings
| Date | Game | Score | Winner | Closing line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-09-08 | 2024 Wk 1 | JAX 17 @ MIA 20 | MIA | MIA -3.5 |
| 2021-10-17 | 2021 Wk 6 | MIA 20 @ JAX 23 | JAX | MIA -2.5 |
| 2020-09-24 | 2020 Wk 3 | MIA 31 @ JAX 13 | MIA | JAX -3 |
| 2018-12-23 | 2018 Wk 16 | JAX 17 @ MIA 7 | JAX | MIA -3 |
| 2015-09-20 | 2015 Wk 2 | MIA 20 @ JAX 23 | JAX | MIA -5 |
Basis: power ratings only (no betting line yet). 10,000 drive-by-drive simulations, calibrated so our percentages match how often teams actually won in a 2020-2026 backtest. Model version 1. How it works
No betting line exists for a game that isn't scheduled, so this uses our own power ratings (they pick about 65% of winners in the backtest). Flip home and away