JAXMIN
Jacksonville Jaguars @ Minnesota Vikings
Any-day matchup, Vikings at home · power ratings as of
Our pick
JAXJacksonville Jaguars
51% to win
A probability, not a promise: a 51% pick loses about 5 times in 10.
Advantages Why the Jaguars can win
- Season-long ratings: over the season, betting lines have rated Jaguars about 1.1 points stronger.
- Simulation: Jaguars win 5,070 of 10,000 simulated games.
- Pass protection, sacks allowed per dropback: Jaguars rank 12th (5.2%), Vikings 30th (9.9%).
- Explosive plays (20+ yards) per game: Jaguars rank 10th (3.8), Vikings 23rd (3.0).
- Strength: Jaguars rank 1st in run defense, EPA per carry allowed (-0.16).
Disadvantages Why the Jaguars may not
- Upset odds: Vikings win 4,930 of 10,000 simulations (49%). A 51% pick still loses about 5 times in 10.
- Home field: Vikings play at home, worth roughly 1 to 2 points in recent seasons.
- Pass rush, sacks per dropback: Vikings rank 1st (10.6%), Jaguars 24th (4.5%).
- Range of outcomes: in the worst 10% of simulations, Jaguars lose by 17 or more.
- Penalty yards per game: Vikings rank 3rd (45.7), Jaguars 25th (68.7).
The line and our numbers
| Market | AZMango | |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | No line yet | MIN -0.2 |
| Total points | n/a | 43.8 |
| Win chance | JAX n/a · MIN n/a | JAX 51% · MIN 49% |
| Fair moneyline | JAX -103 · MIN +103 |
No betting line for this pairing. Odds change all the time, so check a sportsbook before acting on any number here.
10,000 simulated games
- Typical score: MIN 21, JAX 21.
- 80% of simulations land between JAX by 16 and MIN by 17.
Side by side
| JAX | MIN | |
|---|---|---|
| 4-2 | Record | 6-0 |
| 25.7 8 | Points per game | 20.8 24 |
| 17.3 3 | Points allowed | 12.3 1 |
| +0.15 3 | Offense EPA/play | -0.09 29 |
| -0.03 11 | Defense EPA/play allowed | -0.19 1 |
| +0.8 3 | Turnover margin/game | +1.2 1 |
| 4.5% 24 | Sacks per dropback | 10.6% 1 |
Small numbers are league ranks (1 = best). EPA (expected points added) measures how much each play changes a team's expected score.
Last 5 meetings
| Date | Game | Score | Winner | Closing line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-11-10 | 2024 Wk 10 | MIN 12 @ JAX 7 | MIN | MIN -7 |
| 2020-12-06 | 2020 Wk 13 | JAX 24 @ MIN 27 | MIN | MIN -10.5 |
| 2016-12-11 | 2016 Wk 14 | MIN 25 @ JAX 16 | MIN | MIN -3 |
| 2012-09-09 | 2012 Wk 1 | JAX 23 @ MIN 26 | MIN | MIN -3.5 |
| 2008-11-23 | 2008 Wk 12 | MIN 30 @ JAX 12 | MIN | JAX -1 |
Basis: power ratings only (no betting line yet). 10,000 drive-by-drive simulations, calibrated so our percentages match how often teams actually won in a 2020-2026 backtest. Model version 1. How it works
No betting line exists for a game that isn't scheduled, so this uses our own power ratings (they pick about 65% of winners in the backtest). Flip home and away