JAXNYG
Jacksonville Jaguars @ New York Giants
Any-day matchup, Giants at home · power ratings as of
Our pick
JAXJacksonville Jaguars
72% to win
A probability, not a promise: a 72% pick loses about 3 times in 10.
Advantages Why the Jaguars can win
- Giants are missing regulars: LB Tremaine Edmunds (out), S Jevon Holland (out), CB Greg Newsome II (out) and 1 more.
- Season-long ratings: over the season, betting lines have rated Jaguars about 5.0 points stronger.
- Simulation: Jaguars win 7,160 of 10,000 simulated games.
- Recent scoring margins: worth about 2.0 points to Jaguars in our ratings.
- Point differential per game: Jaguars rank 2nd (+8.3), Giants 17th (+0.3).
Disadvantages Why the Jaguars may not
- Home field: Giants play at home, worth roughly 1 to 2 points in recent seasons.
- Upset odds: Giants win 2,840 of 10,000 simulations (28%). A 72% pick still loses about 3 times in 10.
- Range of outcomes: in the worst 10% of simulations, Jaguars lose by 10 or more.
- Weak spot: Jaguars rank 25th in penalty yards per game (68.7).
- Weak spot: Jaguars rank 24th in pass rush, sacks per dropback (4.5%).
The line and our numbers
| Market | AZMango | |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | No line yet | JAX -6.1 |
| Total points | n/a | 46.3 |
| Win chance | JAX n/a · NYG n/a | JAX 72% · NYG 28% |
| Fair moneyline | JAX -252 · NYG +252 |
No betting line for this pairing. Odds change all the time, so check a sportsbook before acting on any number here.
10,000 simulated games
- Typical score: NYG 20, JAX 26.
- 80% of simulations land between JAX by 24 and NYG by 10.
Side by side
| JAX | NYG | |
|---|---|---|
| 4-2 | Record | 4-2-1 |
| 25.7 8 | Points per game | 23.3 16 |
| 17.3 3 | Points allowed | 23.0 17 |
| +0.15 3 | Offense EPA/play | +0.00 16 |
| -0.03 11 | Defense EPA/play allowed | +0.00 16 |
| +0.8 3 | Turnover margin/game | -0.3 20 |
| 4.5% 24 | Sacks per dropback | 3.9% 29 |
Small numbers are league ranks (1 = best). EPA (expected points added) measures how much each play changes a team's expected score.
Last 5 meetings
| Date | Game | Score | Winner | Closing line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2022-10-23 | 2022 Wk 7 | NYG 23 @ JAX 17 | NYG | JAX -3 |
| 2018-09-09 | 2018 Wk 1 | JAX 20 @ NYG 15 | JAX | JAX -2.5 |
| 2014-11-30 | 2014 Wk 13 | NYG 24 @ JAX 25 | JAX | NYG -3 |
| 2010-11-28 | 2010 Wk 12 | JAX 20 @ NYG 24 | NYG | NYG -8 |
| 2006-11-20 | 2006 Wk 11 | NYG 10 @ JAX 26 | JAX | JAX -4 |
Basis: power ratings only (no betting line yet). 10,000 drive-by-drive simulations, calibrated so our percentages match how often teams actually won in a 2020-2026 backtest. Model version 1. How it works
No betting line exists for a game that isn't scheduled, so this uses our own power ratings (they pick about 65% of winners in the backtest). Flip home and away